England have far bigger priorities than worrying about a potential final. Thomas Tuchel's side must first overcome Argentina in Atlanta if they're to reach their first World Cup final since 1966. It won't be a straightforward assignment, but with France and Spain meeting in the other semi-final, it's worth asking: assuming England get there, which opponent would they rather face?
France's frightening attacking prowess has been on full display, with Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele tearing defences apart and navigating physical battles with beaming smiles on their faces. Spain, meanwhile, have been the meanest side at the World Cup, conceding just one goal from six games and with Lamine Yamal ominously still working up to the top gears we all know he's capable of.
We dived into both sides' underlying performances with Machine Football to see which of the two contenders could be preferred in the final by Tuchel and his team.
France: Favourites and Tournament Standouts
France's record speaks for itself. Six matches. Six wins. Sixteen goals scored. Just two conceded. More importantly, Didier Deschamps' side have yet to concede a single goal in the knockout rounds, beating Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco without ever looking close to losing control.
Mbappe is the biggest reason why. Across the tournament he is averaging 1.28 goals and 0.48 assists per 90 minutes – 1.76 goal contributions every game – alongside 0.90 expected goals, 1.44 key passes and 5.91 touches inside the opposition penalty area. Mbappe's remarkable consistency and incredible finishing make him the most dangerous prospect England could face if they reach the final. Despite missing a penalty against Morocco, his finishing has been relentlessly consistent - but his creativity less so. Two of his three assists and four of his nine key passes arrived in the 4-1 win over a rotated Norway side. Across France's other five matches he has created just one goal for a teammate. He's been the tournament's most reliable scorer, but not necessarily its most complete attacker.
Deschamps' Strong System
The obvious instinct is to search for a weakness in France's defence. William Saliba's numbers are more interesting than many would expect. Though Saliba has acquitted himself well - his burst of pace to recover the ball from Miguel Almiron against Paraguay especially stood out - Machine Football ranks him in only the 51st percentile for defensive duels won and the bottom one percent for interceptions. Individually, those aren't elite defensive numbers. Collectively, however, they almost don't matter. Saliba ranks in the 72nd percentile for counter-press recoveries while remaining one of the world's best ball-playing centre-backs, sitting in the top five percent for creativity and the top one percent for passing accuracy. France simply prevent opponents from reaching situations where Saliba has to defend repeated one-v-one duels. That's what makes them so difficult to break down - there simply isn't an obvious weak link to isolate.
Spain's Less Convincing Campaign
Spain are also unbeaten in six matches, but the scorelines tell only part of the story. They needed a late Mikel Merino winner against both Portugal and Belgium in their most recent knockout fixtures, and were famously held to a goalless draw by Cape Verde during the group stage. While Spain may control matches, it doesn't always show on the scoreboard. Lamine Yamal perfectly reflects that pattern. His underlying numbers remain exceptional - averaging 0.47 expected goals, 4.55 shots and 6.73 touches inside the box per 90 while completing over 75% of his dribbles - yet he has scored only 0.20 goals per 90 and is still waiting for his first assist. The platform is there. The end product just hasn't consistently followed. France, and whoever Spain face if they progress to the final, will hope he isn't about to spark into life.
Why Spain Suit England Better
England's own tournament record helps explain why Spain might just be the lesser of two evils for the Three Lions. Across four matches, England have conceded seven shots worth 0.22 expected goals against DR Congo, 12 shots and 1.17 xG against Panama, 13 shots and 1.58 xG against Norway, and 19 shots worth 1.89 xG against Mexico. At first glance, it looks like England simply concede more when games become stretched. The data, however, tells a slightly different story. DR Congo are the real outlier. Each shot they managed was worth just 0.03 expected goals on average. Against Panama, Norway and Mexico, that figure rises to between 0.10 and 0.12 xG per shot. Those are three very different matches which nevertheless produced a remarkably similar level of danger whenever England allowed opponents to create chances.
That matters because it suggests England's vulnerability isn't limited to chaotic, end-to-end football. Panama controlled very little of the game, yet still created chances of comparable quality whenever they managed to play through England's defensive structure. France are arguably the best team left in the tournament to exploit those moments. Mbappe remains the most devastating transition player in the competition, capable of turning even brief defensive lapses into goals. Spain pose a different challenge, preferring long spells of possession and patient build-up rather than repeatedly attacking the space behind England's defence.
The Verdict
If Tuchel could choose, the evidence points towards Spain being his preference - not because England are perfectly equipped to face them, but because Spain have shown more vulnerability throughout the tournament than France have. It's a narrower conclusion than it first appears, but it's also the one the data supports most convincingly. England possess the quality in front of goal to punish any Spanish dalliance in the blink of an eye, as seen in the two dramatic first-half goals against the run of play when England faced Mexico in the round of 16. No team is truly unbeatable and football is a sport where anyone, however unlikely, can win a one-off game - but France are favourites for good reason and England supporters should be crossing everything for an earlier French exit tonight. Tuchel and his players can't afford to be distracted by that, though, with plenty of work to do on Wednesday evening before the lineup for the final is set. Bring it on.
