After years of favourites dominating the Cheltenham Festival, the 2026 edition is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. The last decade has seen an average of eight favourites win each year, with 2022 recording 11 favourites victorious. However, early odds for 2026 suggest a shift, with only four races featuring odds-on favourites.
One of those is Fact To File in the Ryanair Chase, priced at 8/13 after winning the Irish Gold Cup in February. The horse has been tasked with defending his crown rather than challenging for the Gold Cup. The 2025 Festival saw a strong start for favourites—four of seven won on day one—but only five favourites succeeded across the remaining 21 races, with shocks like Doddiethegreat (25/1) and Poniros (100/1) causing upsets.
Irish trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have been a reliable combination, with Townend champion jockey at the Festival in five of the last six years. Yet his four winners in 2025 were his lowest return while still taking the title. Meanwhile, Ireland has won the Prestbury Cup in eight of the last nine years, but British trainers believe the tide may be turning.
English trainer Paul Nicholls said: “Nicky [Henderson] has got a good team of horses, and I’ve got some nice chances… I think things are going to be totally different.” Henderson added: “I think the English squad is definitely stronger than it has been in previous years… It’s going to be very open.”
