Manchester City's guilty verdict for breaching 114 Premier League financial rules between 2009 and 2018 has left the football world awaiting the sanctions. The club, which won eight trophies including three league titles during that period, maintains its innocence and has appealed the independent commission's ruling, saying it is "disappointed and surprised" by the decision.
With the outcome of the appeal pending, speculation has ranged from automatic relegation and stripping of titles to transfer bans, fines, and points deductions. Mirror Football has examined how points penalties of varying severity would affect City's position in the table at the end of the 2026/27 season, using Opta's current predicted end-of-season table, which includes decimal points rounded to the nearest whole number.
Predicted finish without punishment
According to Opta's projections, City are predicted to finish the season on 75.29 points, which rounds down to 75, narrowly missing out on the title to Arsenal by a single point.
In an optimistic scenario where City receive a 10-point deduction — the same as Everton initially received in 2023 before their appeal — they would remain runners-up on 65 points. This outcome would secure a Champions League spot for Enzo Maresca's side, while Arsenal would clinch the title with one of the lowest point totals to date.
Moderate deductions
A 15-point deduction would represent the most severe points punishment in the league's history. Yet, using Opta's metrics, City would still finish in third place and qualify for the Champions League — a mere slap on the wrist rather than the club being made an example of, as many would like. Chelsea and Brentford could feel especially aggrieved if they lost out on a Champions League spot to a guilty City.
Even a 20-point deduction would not be enough for City to drop out of the Champions League qualification spots. However, Opta predicts teams to end this season on remarkably low points totals, presumably due to the high level of competition across the league. Clubs outside the top four would still be left furious in this case.
Heavier penalties and relegation
A 25-point deduction would place City 11th on 50 points, marking the first time the club have finished outside the top four since the 2009/10 season under Roberto Mancini, and their first bottom-half finish since 2006/07, before Sheikh Mansour's takeover. The economic repercussions of a lack of European football and reputational damage would hit City the hardest with this outcome, though it is unlikely to have major long-term repercussions.
Being deducted 40 points would guarantee City's relegation, placing them behind even Frank Lampard's Coventry City. This would send shockwaves around the world of football and act as a major deterrent for other clubs looking to circumvent financial rules. If relegated, City would have to rebuild again, as the majority of their players are expected to leave.
A 100-point deduction would be more symbolic than anything, having the same end result as a 40-point hit. It would, however, ensure City's relegation no matter how badly other teams perform. There is an argument that a lesser point deduction guaranteeing relegation, along with other sanctions such as fines and stripping City's titles, would be more effective.
