The opening 20 seconds in Saudi Arabia were enough for Barry McGuigan. Anthony Joshua was down twice in the first round against Kristian Prenga, and the concern now is not about power but punch resistance.
"This is a brutal business and if I were Joshua, I would be thinking hard about carrying on. I would not want to enter the ring knowing I was not at my best," McGuigan wrote.
'Punch resistance never comes back'
The kind of power Joshua carries is the last thing that leaves a fighter, according to McGuigan. Punch resistance is another matter. Once it goes, it never comes back, and it only gets worse. McGuigan believes Joshua is at that stage, leaving him vulnerable and aware that his opponents know it.
Fury shift
McGuigan said Tyson Fury would have been watching those first-round knockdowns and rubbing his hands. Before the Prenga bout, McGuigan had Joshua as favourite against Fury. That dynamic has now shifted, and everything would have to go right for Joshua to win.
Joshua, he added, has nothing to prove. He has been a vibrant, positive presence in British boxing, won Olympic gold and the world heavyweight championship, and certainly does not need the money. Stepping down from a fight of this magnitude would be difficult, however, with the contest having been brewing for the best part of a decade and important for the whole boxing economy.
Both fading
Fury was far from convincing himself, labouring to victory 24 hours earlier in Thailand against 46-year-old Mariusz Wach, who was annihilated by Moses Itauma. Wach simply got tired in the end. McGuigan said he would have worried for Fury before the Prenga shock, but the truth is both are fading rapidly.
The only way
Inactivity will not have helped Joshua, who had fought only once in 22 months and was involved in a tragic accident last December that took a huge emotional toll. The only way Joshua prevails against Fury is to stand on him and back him up. If he lands early and big, it is over, no matter how suspect his chin.
That is the dilemma. To beat an opponent by being aggressive, you are more likely to walk on to a counter. Fury is likely to keep his distance early, work his jab and then look to send a right straight down the pipe. Alternatively, having noted Joshua's increased vulnerability, Fury could just go for it like he did in the second Deontay Wilder fight. Either way, McGuigan expects it not to go the distance.
