American democracy has settled into a diminished state, stabilising after a sharp decline last year but remaining well below pre-Trump second term levels, according to a new survey by Bright Line Watch. The non-partisan project, which has tracked the views of hundreds of US scholars since 2017, found that the erosion of democratic norms detected after Donald Trump’s return to the White House has hardened into a new baseline.
The survey, conducted in two waves in late 2025 and early 2026, recorded expert ratings of US democratic health at 60 out of 100 in December-January, up from a record low of 53 earlier in Trump’s term. However, following US military action in Venezuela, ratings fell back to 56, and remained at 57 in the second survey. These figures are notably higher than the 50 forecast for end-2025, but still below the 60-70 range seen during Trump’s first term and Joe Biden’s presidency.
Researchers concluded that democratic performance has largely stabilised at lower levels, with modest fluctuations tied to major events. While the trajectory suggests no further rapid deterioration, experts see little evidence of near-term recovery, projecting that US democracy will remain at roughly current levels through 2027, with only gradual improvement over the next decade.
The findings align with assessments by Freedom House and the Varieties of Democracy Institute, which reported steep democratic backsliding under the Trump administration. The White House has rejected suggestions that Trump governs like an autocrat, with the president stating, “I’m not a dictator.”
On specific democratic principles, scholars’ assessments changed little, except for an improvement in judicial checks on the executive, possibly reflecting a Supreme Court ruling curbing Trump’s tariff powers. However, experts expressed near-unanimous alarm over recent administration actions, with 96% of respondents viewing them as threatening democracy.
