Portugal's President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has announced plans to dissolve parliament and call a snap election on 30 January, following the rejection of the government's 2022 draft budget by the national assembly. This marks the first such occurrence in decades, and the president emphasised the budget's importance as Portugal seeks to exit the pandemic and an 'economic and social crisis'.
The early election comes after a period of relative political stability under Prime Minister António Costa, whose Socialist Party has held power for six years without a parliamentary majority. After the 2015 election, the Socialists signed agreements with far-left parties to ensure passage of key legislation, but no written deals were made after the 2019 election, leading to case-by-case negotiations.
That arrangement collapsed on 27 October when the Communist Party joined the Left Bloc in voting against the budget, despite the president's warning that he would dissolve parliament if it were rejected. The Communists appeared convinced by waning poll numbers that they need a period in full-blown opposition to rebuild, with unions linked to the party calling strikes demanding better pay for public sector workers.
Before announcing the election, the president consulted parties and his Council of State. However, the move has raised concerns that the required two-month break before the vote could hamper Portugal's use of EU post-pandemic funds, despite being the first member state to secure approval for its Recovery and Resilience Plan.
Professor Francisco Pereira Coutinho of Lisbon's Nova University noted that the president could have avoided dissolving parliament by pressing for another government or appointing a technocrat-led government, as in Italy. He warned that if the election yields a similar result, 'we have a problem'. Analysts agree that the far-right Chega party, which won its first seat in 2019, stands to gain several seats, potentially forcing right-of-centre parties to decide whether to do deals with it.
Currently, the Socialists hold a lead of some 12 percentage points over the centre-right Social Democrats, who, along with their usual ally the People's Party, are riven by internal conflict. By scheduling the vote near the end of January, the president has given those parties extra time for leadership elections.
