France is bracing for another political crisis as the minority government of François Bayrou appears almost certain to be toppled in a confidence vote next month, amid deep political divisions over an unpopular austerity budget and debt-reduction plan. The centrist prime minister has said he will “fight like a dog” to stay in power.
Bayrou, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, surprised observers by calling a vote of confidence from parliamentarians, with opposition parties on the far right and left eager to eject him after less than nine months in office. Boris Vallaud, the head of the Socialist parliamentary group, said: “We need to change politics and for that we need to change prime minister.”
The gamble, which involves Macron convening a special session of parliament on 8 September, has sparked fears of another crisis less than a year after Michel Barnier’s government was toppled over budget disagreements. Paris stock markets tumbled, bank shares sank and borrowing costs rose on Tuesday as investors fretted. Planned protests against the budget cuts, as well as potential strikes and demonstrations by trade unions, are expected to begin on 10 September.
At the heart of the crisis is Bayrou’s unpopular and vague plan for a €44bn (£38bn) budget squeeze, including scrapping two public holidays and freezing welfare spending. Polls show voters see the budget as unfair and letting the wealthiest off the hook. In a last-minute appeal to the left, Bayrou said he was prepared to demand a “specific effort” from high-wealth individuals.
If Bayrou is ousted, Macron would be dragged into domestic upheaval at a significant international moment, as he positions himself to play a role on Ukraine and the recognition of a Palestinian state. Macron could swiftly appoint a new prime minister, but they too could risk being ousted over the budget. A source close to Marine Le Pen said it was hard to see how any new prime minister could escape a vote of no confidence.
Le Pen’s party instead wants Macron to dissolve parliament and call a snap election, although Macron said this summer he did not want to do this. The interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, said it would be irresponsible and “against France’s interests” to vote for the government to fall. The Green leader, Marine Tondelier, said Macron must now appoint a prime minister from the left.
