Just 25% of Australians back the latest federal budget, with a majority believing the Labour government has fallen short of expectations in its first year, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. The poll, conducted after the budget was announced a fortnight ago, reveals that key measures on housing and tax have failed to gain widespread support, with only a third or fewer voters backing changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT).
The survey of more than 1,000 Australians shows Labour’s primary vote at 29%, down one point from April, while One Nation has surged to 28%, just one point behind Labour and ahead of the Coalition on 23%. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval has slumped to -17, down from -10 in April, with only 37% approving of his performance.
Among the budget measures, the most popular is the $250 working Australians tax offset, supported by 47% of voters. However, only 33% back winding back negative gearing and CGT for property, and just 32% support changing CGT for shares and investments. Introducing new taxes on trusts is the least popular, with only 26% in support. Many voters remain undecided, with significant proportions saying they neither support nor oppose the changes.
The poll also highlights strong support for opposition leader Angus Taylor’s hardline immigration policies, with 58% backing a cap on immigration linked to new house builds and 57% supporting limiting welfare to citizens only. On the issue of broken promises, 46% of voters believe governments should stick to election commitments, while 41% think it is reasonable to change position if circumstances change.
Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, said the results show high levels of uncertainty about the budget’s impact, with ongoing cost-of-living pressures creating low confidence in the future. The government has framed the budget as a bid for intergenerational fairness, but voters remain unconvinced, with only 28% believing the changes will make the housing market fairer for young people.
