More than 200,000 people have been granted indefinite leave to remain in the UK since Labour vowed to tighten migration rules last year, and experts now fear a surge in citizenship applications driven by foreign nationals from poorer countries.
Research from the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory analysed arrivals who first obtained a visa between 2013 and 2015. The findings show that 90% of Egyptians who moved to the UK in that period have since become citizens. Similar rates were recorded for other nationalities: more than 90% of Armenians, 93% of Moldovans, 89% of Belarusians, 89% of Togolese, 87% of Pakistanis, 85% of Iranians, 83% of Bangladeshis and 84% of Jordanians.
Cabinet divisions over crackdown
Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood are facing a growing revolt from within their own Cabinet over the migration crackdown. Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh said Ms Mahmood’s policies will hinder efforts to create cohesion.
She said: “We need a more compassionate immigration system. The asylum process is broken and needs reform.”
“Ultimately, I want to see a system based on control and compassion, with a much stronger focus on integration,” she added, citing Peckham as an example of successful community building.
Citizenship figures branded a scandal
Robert Bates, Research Director at the Centre of Migration Control, said: “Citizenship is being awarded en-masse to cohorts that will never make a positive economic or social contribution to Britain. Lax immigration rules, riddled with loopholes and fraud, have saddled this country with a huge problem.”
He added: “These figures are a scandal. The dilution and degradation of British citizenship, with passports dished out like confetti, is something that must now be confronted and reversed.”
Home Office figures show Indians, Pakistanis, Nigerians, Turks, Iranians and Filipinos were the top cohorts granted settlement rights in the year to June, followed by Chinese, Americans, South Africans, Bangladeshis, Sudanese, Egyptians, Eritreans, Iraqis and Afghans. The top 10 nationalities applying for citizenship include India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Italy, Poland, Romania, the United States, the Philippines, Turkey and South Africa.
Research shows income divide
The Migration Observatory’s research paper noted: “Among non-EU citizens in the UK, people from higher-income countries are in general less likely to have become UK citizens than those from lower-income or politically unstable countries.”
For example, among non-EU migrants with permanent status first granted a visa in 2013–2015, 90% of Egyptians had become citizens by 2025, compared to around half of those from the United States, Australia and Canada.
At least 5,000 more people who have lived in the UK for five years on valid visas gain settlement, and the numbers are expected to rise as those who arrived after the pandemic become eligible for indefinite leave to remain.
Home Secretary faces opposition
Ms Mahmood, speaking at the Labour Party conference, hinted she may soften her settlement rights reforms, saying she will “come to a position that balances fairness”. She faces opposition from more than 100 of her own MPs, trade unions and voters.
Andrea Egan of Unison accused Ms Mahmood of fuelling the far-right, while Angela Rayner also came out against the plans. Under the proposals, migrants would wait at least 10 years before applying for settlement, and care workers could face a 15-year wait for indefinite leave to remain. Migrants could also be barred from claiming benefits unless they become British citizens.
Some 4.2 million migrants moved to the UK between 2021 and 2024. A government source said: “It is a little rich of the Tories to criticise this Government on the Boriswave. The hint is in the name: the Tories made it. We have cut net migration by over 80% from their peak.”
A Home Office spokesperson said: “This government has announced reforms that mean settlement must be earned and not automatic. We are currently considering responses to our consultation on elements of these reforms.”
