Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation as Japan’s prime minister, announced on a Sunday evening, surprised many, but the seeds of his downfall were sown shortly after he took office. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan for most of the past seven decades, is still reeling from a years-old funding scandal that may push it into opposition for only the third time in its history.
Ishiba won the LDP presidency and called a snap election seeking a public mandate after a major funding scandal, hoping to silence right-wing opponents. The gamble backfired: the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the lower house, forcing Ishiba to lead a minority government. He then limped through months of soaring rice prices, the return of tariff-happy Donald Trump, and an emboldened North Korea, only to face another punishing election.
In July’s upper house elections, the LDP lost its majority for the second time in less than a year. Voters made clear that the party had not done enough to address the scandal, in which dozens of LDP lawmakers siphoned unreported profits from ticket sales into slush funds. Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, had apologised in February last year and promised to stop fundraising parties, but there has been no concerted show of contrition. Ishiba himself had to apologise after giving gift certificates to 15 newly elected LDP members, which critics said proved a culture of monetary rewards.
The Mainichi Shimbun editorialised that lawmakers had “underestimated” public anger over money in politics. Ishiba claimed “considerable progress” by abolishing undisclosed “policy activity expenses,” but he and other LDP lawmakers opposed bans on corporate and group donations. Most of those involved in the scandal were never indicted, adding to voter anger. “There is no sign of self-reflection on the significant loss of trust in politics,” the Mainichi said.
As the LDP braces for a leadership election in early October, it seeks a successor capable of resurrection. Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight said party leaders may look for someone who can promote unity, generate public support, and work with opposition parties to stabilise the government. However, the focus on the party’s existential crisis could drown out debate on economic and foreign policy, despite concerns over regional tensions, Trump’s trade war, and the cost of living crisis. The LDP may still go into opposition for the third time in its history.
