Chancellor John Healey faces the biggest test of his career when he presents his first Budget on Wednesday, with some in Westminster believing a successful plan could pave the way for a general election as soon as next year.
Healey, who has served under four Prime Ministers in nearly 30 years in Parliament, was the surprise pick as Treasury chief in July after quitting Keir Starmer's government in protest over defence spending. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has promised to lead a 'cost-of-living government'.
Measures Already Announced
The government has already introduced a raft of measures, including a £2 bus fare cap and scrapping VAT on energy bills, with the promise of more to come. However, the economy is in troubled waters, with Donald Trump's war in Iran ramping up the cost of government borrowing, giving Healey less wriggle room than he would like.
In an attempt to prevent leaks, the Treasury is said to have introduced new "military-style" security measures, a nod to the Chancellor's time at the Ministry of Defence.
Backbench Support and Expectations
One union source told The Mirror: "This is one of the first big tests for Burnham's government. There's no doubt that they have hit the ground running - capping bus fares and taking VAT off energy bills. But households are staring down the barrel of a very difficult winter. They need a budget which does everything it can to protect living standards. That will mean taking on vested interests like big banks and the super rich who can afford to pay a bit more in tax. They'll get stick from the usual suspects but they need to hold their nerve and deliver for working people."
A former shadow minister told The Mirror that the Budget could well be a springboard for an early general election. The left-winger said: "I think this budget will, if it lands well with the public, with business, with trade unions, with backbenchers - if it lands well out there, I think it will be another tick in the box for an early general election next year, probably."
Another MP said: "Andy's done a great job of setting out a vision. His speech at the Labour Party conference was one of the best I've seen in over 30 years, and he's not just playing it safe. Voters like that. We (Labour backbenchers) like that. Higher taxes for banks to pay for cost-of-living measures is an easy win. Hopefully there'll be more policies like that."
Different Mood Under Burnham
Backbenchers have said the mood is a lot different to the build-up to previous Budgets under Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. One MP said: "Look, it's very clear that the frontbench now are far more engaged with backbenchers... The whips are far more touchy-feely. I wouldn't say it's quite an HR department, but they definitely are more in touch with how we're feeling. They're right to be. They've looked at what happened to the Starmer regime in two years, they've been brought down and he doesn't want that."
Labour will seek to frame the choices made by the Chancellor as a key dividing line with the Tories, and are expected to accuse Kemi Badenoch of focusing on tax cuts for the wealthy, rather than those struggling to pay their bills.
Polling and Next Steps
New YouGov polling reveals that nearly a quarter (23%) say Mr Burnham has so far met their positive expectations, though 12% say they had expected him to do well and have been disappointed. There are 14% saying the PM has been better than they expected, though a further 23% said they expected he would do poorly - and believe he has.
It will be the polling after the Budget that will most interest Mr Burnham and his advisors as they weigh up whether to make the biggest of gambles in the coming months.
