Nigel Farage has launched a six-week campaign and policy blitz, pledging to halve overall crime in the first five years of a Reform UK government. At a press conference on Monday, the Reform leader made a series of claims about crime levels in the UK and government efforts to lower them.
Farage's central argument is that crime has risen so much that the UK is 'facing societal collapse', while politicians are in complete denial. He wrote in the Daily Mail that total crime was 50% higher than in the 1990s. However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) regards the Crime Survey for England and Wales as the more accurate metric of long-term crime trends, and it shows that crime against individuals and households has generally fallen over the last 10 years, with some exceptions such as sexual assault.
Farage claimed that the crime survey is based on 'completely false data' and that police-recorded crime shows 'significant rises', particularly in crimes against the person. The ONS says police-recorded crime 'does not tend to be a good indicator of general trends in crime' and should only be used with other data. There are some short-term increases, including a 33% rise in fraud and a 50% increase in theft from the person compared with 2023.
Farage also claimed that 57% of women felt unsafe walking on London's streets, citing a Survation poll. He said tourists were reluctant to visit London and that wealthy people like oil magnate John Fredriksen were leaving. Fredriksen, however, cited tax changes as his main reason for selling his Chelsea mansion and said nothing about crime. Farage also said one in three Londoners had been subject to phone theft, but this came from a survey by a fintech startup, not police figures. The Metropolitan Police reported 80,000 phones stolen in London in 2024, suggesting far fewer than one in three were affected.
Farage claimed there had been 'so little debate in Westminster' on crime, but both Labour and the Conservatives made crime pledges central to their manifestos for the July 2024 election. The government's mission includes halving serious violent crime and raising confidence in the police and criminal justice system.
