British voters believe the economy is collapsing and things are only going to get worse, but they lack confidence in Prime Minister Andy Burnham to make a difference, according to a major new survey published ahead of his first Budget.
The poll, released in the run-up to the Budget – the first with Mr Burnham as Prime Minister – illustrates the challenge facing him and his Chancellor, John Healey. Voters are terrified, and perhaps they should be.
Economic outlook worsens
All the signs are that 2027 is going to be an even more miserable year than 2026, at least as far as wallets are concerned. Inflation will go up, with the cost of food rising fastest thanks to this year's heatwave, the El Niño weather phenomenon – which will push temperatures up again next year – and the ongoing conflict in the Gulf, which pushes up energy costs for farmers and other businesses.
Energy bills are expected to continue rising, adding to hikes in the cost of gas and electricity. Mortgage payments will rise as interest rates creep upwards.
But Mr Burnham's man-of-the-people act has its drawbacks. Yes, he's an ordinary bloke, unlike a lot of politicians. He likes a pint, loves football and, like many middle-aged people today, still listens to the music that was popular in his younger days.
Voters doubt Burnham's toughness
Voters aren't convinced he's tough enough to make a difference. The Budget, although it will be delivered by his hand-picked Chancellor, is his chance to persuade the British public otherwise. And it may be his only chance, as first impressions stick.
A major new poll by More in Common shows just how British voters feel. Four in 10 believe the economy is in a recession. Economists will tell you this is not correct, but the point is that people feel things are going downhill.
The good news for Mr Burnham is that five in 10 people actually believed the UK was in a recession a year ago. So public opinion may be moving in the right direction for Labour, but it is still dire.
Confidence in the Prime Minister
There is little confidence in the Prime Minister. Half of voters think Mr Burnham does care about the cost of living for people like them – but only 29% feel optimistic that he will manage to bring down the cost of living, while 44% are pessimistic.
This helps explain why Nigel Farage and Reform UK are focusing more attention on the economy, and this week published 60 policies they claim will get British people feeling upbeat again.
Measures include approving more oil and gas drilling, making it possible to build new runways at Gatwick and Heathrow, and sweeping away red tape that stops people building houses, factories and more on unused industrial land, once it is cleaned up. Mr Farage said: “It's clear that urgent action is required. Reform's proposals will create a vibrant, growing private sector that delivers well-paid jobs for British citizens.”
Labour, of course, will set out its own vision in the Budget this week. Mr Burnham urgently needs to convince a gloomy British public that he's more than just a nice guy and that he has a real plan to end the UK's slow economic meltdown.
