Nearly eight months after resigning as deputy prime minister over her tax arrangements, Angela Rayner may be poised for a return to the cabinet. Speculation is mounting that Prime Minister Keir Starmer could conduct a small-scale reshuffle, primarily to bring back Rayner, one of Labour's political heavyweights. However, Starmer has not yet made a final decision, and the timing may depend on the scale of Labour's losses in upcoming elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and English councils.
Elections analyst Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer, has predicted Labour will lose 1,850 council seats on 7 May, exceeding the 1,500 figure that some reports suggest could trigger a cabinet revolt. Hayward also forecasts that Reform UK will gain about 1,550 councillors and the Greens 500. If Starmer limps on after such losses, the temptation to bring Rayner back into the cabinet as part of a reset would be strong, signalling a change of direction to restive MPs.
Since her resignation last September over stamp duty underpayment on a flat, Rayner has walked a line between loyalty and interventionism. Some of her interventions have been seen as helpful by No 10, such as her compromise on the workers' rights bill to help it pass the Lords. Others have been less welcome, like her recent labelling of proposed immigration rule changes as 'un-British' and her criticism that Starmer cannot 'go through the motions' amid ebbing support.
Starmer has said he would welcome Rayner back, and the two reportedly discussed the idea during a school visit this month. However, an ongoing HMRC investigation into the stamp duty underpayment has obstructed her return. Rayner's allies had hoped the matter would be resolved before next week's elections; if delayed, they still expect it to conclude soon.
A final hurdle is whether Rayner would want to rejoin what she may see as a sinking ship. Some in government wonder if her recent interventions indicate she is more interested in causing trouble than joining the cabinet, possibly eyeing a leadership challenge. It is understood she would listen seriously to any offer and would not demand the deputy PM role again (now held by David Lammy), but would likely refuse a 'non-job'. One minister said: 'She is not trying to be hostile. There are people who weaponise her for their own purposes, but she wants to play a role again in frontbench politics.'
Rayner's pointed interventions have resonated with many Labour MPs, and she is seen as able to connect with voters in a human way that Starmer cannot. Some suggest she might be more valuable as a backbencher, free to campaign and speak around the country. All calculations are filtered through the possibility of a leadership challenge, with Rayner routinely cited as a contender. Another potential challenger, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, has called for a 'moment of reflection' after the elections and a 'different course' for Labour, though he was blocked from standing in a recent byelection.
