Labor secured a crucial victory on Tuesday by passing tax changes through the Senate with Greens support, but the deal may have jeopardised its chances of easily passing significant cost-cutting reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) in August.
The government's agreement with the Greens extends the NDIS inquiry by two months, adding new public hearings and more committee time. Health Minister Mark Butler admitted hearing "confronting" evidence from the disability community, which fears losing access to key supports. The eight-week extension, spearheaded by the activist Greens party, could intensify opposition to the bill.
Coalition Anger Threatens NDIS Bill
The tax deal has infuriated the Coalition, whose support is now critical for the NDIS bill. Despite the Coalition's long-standing concerns over the NDIS's spiralling costs, its members are raising louder objections to the proposed changes. There is a non-zero chance the reforms end up without Senate support in August.
For now, the government celebrates the passage of negative gearing and capital gains tax changes. Labor members will return to their communities with a positive message: more help for first-home buyers, levelling the playing field between workers and the wealthy, and challenging the status quo. These tax changes are popular, even if taxes on investments and businesses are not.
Greens' Bargain: Inquiry Extension
The price for Greens support was extending the NDIS inquiry. The jury is out on who got the better deal. Some Liberals, even those worried about NDIS changes, think the Greens were dudded—an inquiry extension is a minor dividend for backing contentious tax reforms the government desperately needed.
The Greens repeatedly stressed they would never vote for the NDIS bill and want it scrapped. They also secured amendments curbing the minister's powers to alter support budgets and increasing scrutiny on automated decision-making and algorithms.
Greens' Changed Tactics
Greens were burned last term by perceptions they were too oppositional on housing and environment. Using clever parliamentary tactics, they pushed for more ambitious Labor agenda but were painted as obstructionist. Election defeats of leader Adam Bandt and housing spokesperson Max Chandler-Mather rattled the party, making them more cautious this term.
Extending the inquiry gives the Greens and disability community a platform to keep fighting. Disability spokesperson Senator Jordon Steele-John claimed "momentum behind these cuts is crumbling" and pledged to "keep organising, campaigning." The inquiry heard testimony describing the changes as "blunt and inequitable," "retrogressive," and likely to cause "material harm."
Government Unswayed
Butler and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese indicated that the inquiry extension is unlikely to sway the government into major changes. Butler said, "Some of the evidence we heard from the inquiry was obviously confronting," but added that "the government remains convinced that this is absolutely the right package." When asked why experts and participants disagree, he replied, "I get this is hard change and people are concerned about the impact. Our job is to clarify exactly what that impact will be."
Coalition's Decision Pending
With the Greens intractably opposed, the NDIS changes rest with Opposition Leader Angus Taylor. Taylor remained coy on how the Coalition would vote, saying he was "concerned about aspects" of the cuts but also wanted costs to be "sustainable" and to find "an outcome as quickly as possible."
In opposition, Labor was accused of a tactic dubbed "the bitch and fold": raising major concerns about a change only to vote for it at the last minute. Liberal anger over the "dirty deal" with the Greens, combined with internal alarm over NDIS impacts, may lead the Coalition to oppose the cuts—or it may be Taylor's first "bitch and fold" as opposition leader. The outcome will be revealed in August.
