A report based on research by Stan Greenberg, a senior pollster to Tony Blair and Bill Clinton, has found that progressive voters are being driven away from Labour by Keir Starmer's lack of argument and vision. The study, from UCL's Policy Lab, suggests voters perceive Starmer as having a "discomfort" with progressive values, with key fights including a more robust challenge to Donald Trump and a more passionate defence of environmentalism.
Downing Street is understood to have been briefed on the findings, which have also been shared with allies of potential leadership candidates Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner. The warning comes as Labour braces for dismal results in Thursday's elections, which could trigger a leadership challenge against Starmer.
Marc Stears, director of the Policy Lab, said: "Keir Starmer came in on a wave of frustration with politics as usual and a promise of change. There is no hiding from the frustration voters feel with his time so far. Some of this can be put down to his personal style but this report suggests it is also due to his discomfort with progressive values."
The report highlights Starmer's decision not to join the Iran war, which voters welcomed but said needed a strong values statement about why the war was wrong, rather than technocratic explanations about illegality. It also warns that closer EU ties alone would not suffice without a more explicit declaration of values, with progressive voters seeking radicalism on public services, taxation, climate and democracy.
Polling found Starmer is viewed negatively by three-quarters of voters, similar to Jeremy Corbyn, while Burnham has the best ratings. Just 13% to 15% of progressive voters are open to voting Labour, compared with only 2% of Reform voters. The research also indicates Reform UK is reaching its ceiling, with few Conservative voters willing to consider backing Nigel Farage's party.
Focus groups revealed that voters believe Britain has failed to show values-based opposition to Trump, unlike politicians in Canada and Spain, and that strong climate messaging would be popular. The report warns that Labour faces a serious challenge from the Greens, with progressives hungry for radicalism more commonly associated with the Brexit-facing right.
