In a seismic shift in Welsh politics, Labour has been reduced to third place in the Senedd election, winning just nine seats in the 96-seat chamber. The party, which dominated Welsh politics for over a century, saw its support collapse as Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party and is set to form a minority government.
First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro, becoming the first UK government leader to lose their seat while in office. She resigned immediately, with Ken Skates appointed as interim leader. Morgan acknowledged the rejection, stating, 'The people of Wales have rejected us and we owe it to them to listen, understand, and rebuild.'
Analysts point to multiple factors behind the collapse, including dissatisfaction with Labour's record on public services, the unpopularity of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and effective campaigning by Plaid Cymru, which framed a vote for them as the only way to stop Reform UK. The new proportional voting system also played a role.
Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University described the result as 'astonishing,' noting that Labour's traditional strongholds in the post-industrial valleys and even Cardiff have eroded. 'It’s hard to identify any solid territory they can rebuild on,' he said.
Labour's decline has been building for years, with criticism of its management of the NHS, education, and poverty in Wales. The party also struggled with incumbency and a perceived lack of interest from Westminster, as Starmer warned against 'overly deferential relations' with devolved governments.
