With just days to go until the UK general election, about one in eight voters remain undecided, according to pollsters. This group, estimated at 12% of the electorate, could determine the scale of the Conservatives' defeat, which polls suggest could range from heavy to catastrophic. Labour is projected to win 428 seats, a majority of 102, while the Tories may fall to as few as 127 seats.
YouGov's research into 641 undecided voters reveals they are disproportionately female (67%), likely to have voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum (43%), and to have backed the Conservatives in 2019 (43%). However, their eventual choices are split: 9% are leaning Conservative, 9% Labour, 5% Liberal Democrat, 4% Green, and 3% Reform UK. A quarter are unlikely to vote at all.
Professor Paula Surridge of the University of Bristol notes that the number of undecided voters is unusually high for this stage of a campaign, particularly among former Conservative supporters. “Everyone expected previous Conservative voters to start drifting back, but it hasn’t happened,” she said. This contrasts with the 2017 election, when undecided Labour voters largely returned to the party by polling day.
The Liberal Democrats could rise from 11 seats in 2019 to 50, while Reform UK, despite a projected 16% vote share, may win only two seats but will cost the Tories seats across the country. The final outcome hinges on whether undecided voters turn out and which way they break in the polling booth.
