In a political landscape characterised by constant turbulence, Donald Trump's approval ratings have demonstrated surprising stability during one of the most challenging periods of his presidency. Despite facing simultaneous crises that would typically devastate any leader's popularity, the former president's numbers remained remarkably steady.
The Perfect Storm of Political Crises
During the final quarter of 2019, Trump confronted two major political earthquakes that would have sunk most presidencies. The Ukraine scandal, which led to his impeachment by the House of Representatives, dominated headlines with allegations that he pressured a foreign government to investigate his political rivals.
Simultaneously, the United States endured the longest government shutdown in its history, lasting 35 days between December 2018 and January 2019. The partial closure affected approximately 800,000 federal employees and disrupted numerous government services.
Polling Resilience Defies Conventional Wisdom
According to Gallup polling data from this tumultuous period, Trump's approval rating stood at 43% in the survey conducted between December 2-15, 2019. This figure represented only a marginal decline from his 45% rating in early October, just as the Ukraine scandal was gaining momentum.
What makes these numbers particularly striking is their consistency with Trump's overall approval pattern throughout his presidency. His ratings have historically shown less volatility than those of his predecessors, remaining largely confined to a band between the high 30s to mid-40s.
The Partisan Divide Explains the Stability
Political analysts point to extreme partisan polarization as the primary factor behind Trump's resilient numbers. His approval among Republicans remained steadfastly high throughout these crises, rarely dipping below 85%.
This unwavering support from his political base provided a floor beneath which his overall approval ratings could not fall, regardless of external events or scandals. Meanwhile, his disapproval among Democrats remained equally entrenched near 90%.
Historical Context and Comparisons
Previous presidents facing comparable crises experienced significantly more dramatic polling declines. During the Watergate scandal, Richard Nixon's approval plummeted from 67% in early 1973 to 24% by his resignation in August 1974.
Bill Clinton, despite seeing an initial drop during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, ultimately recovered and even saw improved approval ratings. However, Trump's case is unique in maintaining such consistent numbers through multiple simultaneous controversies.
The durability of Trump's support during this period continues to shape political strategy and analysis, demonstrating the powerful role of partisan identity in modern American politics.
