The Conservatives have moved eight points ahead of Reform UK in a new poll, a blow to Nigel Farage's hopes of becoming prime minister.
The survey, conducted by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft and shared with The Mail on Sunday, shows Labour on 31%, the Tories on 26%, and Reform on 18%.
Lead widens in a month
The figures show the Conservatives' lead over Mr Farage's party has increased from three points to eight points in only a month. More than 5,200 adults were surveyed between October 29 and November 2.
Mr Farage questioned the poll's accuracy, telling The Mail on Sunday: "He had us at 21 [points] the week before the May local elections, but we got 28." The Reform leader also argued most polls underestimate Reform's share of the vote by four percentage points.
Polling method defended
This was dismissed by a source close to Lord Ashcroft, arguing the May reference was a "red herring" because he asks about general elections, rather than local elections. A spokesman added: "I don't remember Nigel complaining when we had Reform nine points ahead."
Unlike many other pollsters, Lord Ashcroft asks how likely people think they are to vote for each party at the next election, rather than which party they would back in a hypothetical election tomorrow, reports The Mail on Sunday.
Badenoch's rising popularity
Writing in the newspaper, Lord Ashcroft said Tory leader Kemi Badenoch "continues to make an impression" with voters who say she "seems strong, direct, principled and articulate". Ms Badenoch's popularity has risen sharply in the past year or so.
Meanwhile, Lord Ashcroft said "suspicions over dodgy donations, unsavoury activists, and questions over seriousness and competence have combined to stall Reform's momentum".
The findings come after a YouGov poll last month showed the Tories at 23%, placing it second behind Labour at 24%, with a three point gain over Reform in third at 21%. Ms Badenoch argued the leapfrogging was "just the beginning" of a Tory resurgence.
