Professor Sir John Curtice, the UK's leading pollster, has stated that a Reform UK victory at the next general election is becoming increasingly likely because the party's backers are motivated by ideology rather than protest. His latest analysis suggests that Reform UK's supporters form a 'coalition' of individuals with 'distinct socially conservative views'.
Economic Factors May Not Suffice
Sir John indicated that turning around the sluggish economy or improving the NHS 'might help' Labour but is 'unlikely to be sufficient' to counter Reform UK's appeal. He predicted that while Reform's popularity is unlikely to surge much above 30 points, this could be 'a potentially winning number' given the fragmentation of UK politics.
Reform UK's Impact on Conservatives
Sir John noted that Reform UK has been 'eating the Tories for breakfast, lunch and dinner' in terms of peeling off right-leaning voters. Current polls show Reform UK hovering around 26 to 27 percentage points, Labour at 17 to 19, and the Tories at 18 to 19. The pollster's assessment underscores the challenge for both Labour and the Conservatives in the upcoming election.
In a related Daily Mail poll, readers were asked whether they agree with Sir John's assessment of Reform UK's backers. The poll also referenced a previous question on Nicola Sturgeon, where 92% of over 20,000 respondents said she has not been unfairly vilified, while 8% said she has.
