Polling expert Sir John Curtice has stated that the early results from the local elections indicate a 'fracturing of British politics'. Speaking to the BBC, he noted that Reform UK, expected to be the big winners, are 'not quite at 30 per cent of the vote' and that 'none of the parties are very big', marking a shift from the traditional two-party system.
Labour suffers heavy losses
Labour has already lost hundreds of councillors and eight local authorities across England, while Reform, the Greens, and the Liberal Democrats have all made gains. Nigel Farage claimed the results show Reform is on course to win the next general election. The prime minister faces further losses as counting continues in English local elections and contests for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd.
Curtice's analysis
Sir John told the BBC: 'It may well be now that Labour lose rather less than the 1,500 seats that perhaps some people said was potentially the tipping point for attempts to unseat Keir Starmer.' He added: 'There is still a very long way to go and certainly what one has to say is this: the big picture is Reform are ahead.'
'It's clear that Reform are so far winning most votes in the elections that have been declared so far, in much the same way as they were in last year's council elections. And they are basically being trailed by four parties that are all of them just a little bit below 20 per cent or so, somewhere between 15 and 20 per cent, but are actually at the moment quite difficult to disentangle.'
He continued: 'But none of the parties are very big, let's make that clear. Even Reform are probably not quite at 30 per cent of the vote, so the fracturing of British politics is underlined by these results and confirmed by them.' He also noted that the Greens were struggling to convert votes into seats due to 'far too many creditable second and third places'.
Leadership speculation
Sir Keir Starmer has faced speculation about his leadership, with the Times reporting that Energy Secretary Ed Miliband urged him to set out a timetable for his departure. However, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy urged the party not to play 'pass the parcel' with the leadership. Labour sources pointed to poor local election results under previous prime ministers, including Tony Blair, who lost 1,100 councillors in 1999 but won re-election in 2001.
Farage celebrates gains
Nigel Farage hailed the early results as a sign his party is on course for victory at the next general election. He heralded a 'historic change in British politics,' telling reporters 'there is no more left-right' as Reform scored 'stunning percentages in traditional old Labour areas'. Comparing the gains to clearing Becher's Brook in the Grand National, he said: 'If we cleared Becher's Brook and landed well, we go on to win the Grand National. What is very clear to me is that our voters will stick with us now all the way through.'
With 38 of 136 councils declaring full results early Friday, Reform's gains exceeded 230 seats while Labour lost more than 170. Farage's party also took control of its first council, Newcastle-under-Lyme, from the Conservatives.
