Andy Burnham leaves the Greater Manchester mayoralty with a 65% approval rating, according to new polling from FocalData for Hope Not Hate. Residents believe he did a 'fairly well' or 'very well' job in office, creating a deep reservoir of local goodwill that has propelled his national ambitions.
Transport Reforms Top Achievements
Burnham's signature public transport reforms emerge as his crowning achievement, with 77% of residents agreeing he did well, compared to just 17% who felt he did badly. He also held comfortable majorities for his handling of policing and fire services at 56%, and economic growth at 53%. On complex social issues, healthcare drew a tighter 50% to 35% split, while housing and homelessness landed at a more divisive 45% approval against 39% disapproval.
Election Campaign Underway
The polling comes as the election campaign to replace Burnham gets under way. Labour has selected Manchester council leader Bev Craig as its candidate for the July 30 contest. Craig, who has led the council since 2021, is regarded as a close ally of Burnham and will seek to present herself as the candidate of continuity. Following the announcement, she said: "Greater Manchester is a special place - from the industrial revolution, the trade union and cooperative movements and the suffragettes - this place has always fought for progress. This place changed my life and I owe it everything. It gave me opportunities I could never have imagined, and I've spent my career trying to give something back."
Reform UK is yet to formally announce its candidate, although party figures are increasingly confident they can mount a serious challenge after strong performances across Greater Manchester in recent elections. Dan Barker has emerged as a leading contender for the nomination. The Green Party has selected Trafford councillor Geraldine Coggins, who hopes to build on the party's recent advances and position herself as an alternative to both Labour and Reform. The Liberal Democrats are also expected to contest the election, though their candidate had not been formally announced when this article was published.
Labour and Reform Neck-and-Neck
The new poll also shows Labour and Reform UK separated by just three points in Greater Manchester. Labour stands at 33.2% of first preference support, with Reform UK close behind on 30.1%. The Greens are third on 12.5%, followed by the Conservatives on 11.1% and the Liberal Democrats on 7.6%. The poll of 1,143 people was conducted between May 22 and June 5 and weighted to be representative of Greater Manchester's population, with a margin of error of approximately three percentage points, making it a potential dead-heat in the first round.
Burnham's National Ambitions
Following his decisive victory in the Ashton-in-Makerfield by-election, Burnham is now expected to become the next Prime Minister after Sir Keir Starmer announced he was stepping down this week. There are no expected challengers in the leadership election, meaning a 'coronation' is expected in mid-July. Chancellor Rachel Reeves told the BBC that she is "backing" Andy Burnham to be the UK's next prime minister amid speculation she could be replaced as Chancellor if he takes office. Speaking to the BBC, Reeves said: "I'm not going to pre-empt the decisions that the new prime minister will make. I'm backing Andy. I think he'd be a great prime minister, but those are his decisions, not mine to make."
