Long before voting closed in the 2024 US elections, pundits predicted that young Americans would be split by a wide gender gap. Those predictions proved correct, but the results still defied expectations, according to political scientist Melissa Deckman, who runs the Public Religion Research Institute and recently published a book on Gen Z voters.
Overall, Kamala Harris won voters aged 18 to 29 by six points. However, preliminary exit polling shows Donald Trump opened up a 16-point gender gap among young voters: 56 per cent of men in that age group voted for Trump, while only 40 per cent of women did. More surprisingly, Trump improved on his 2020 performance among young women, rising from 33 per cent then.
The economy was the top issue for Gen Z, with those prioritising it breaking heavily for Trump. Abortion, which was the leading issue for young voters in 2022 (44 per cent ranked it top), fell to just 13 per cent in this election. Deckman called this a ‘big cratering’. The drop in salience may have contributed to lower turnout: only 42 per cent of young people voted, down from 2020.
Deckman noted that young women have become increasingly progressive and engaged, yet many did not vote accordingly. She attributed the gender gap partly to young women coming of age politically during Trump’s presidency and the #MeToo movement, fostering a gender consciousness not seen in older generations. Meanwhile, young men shifted rightward, breaking with recent trends where a majority voted for Democrats.
The findings suggest that while young women remain strongly supportive of abortion rights and are frustrated with having fewer rights than their mothers, economic concerns drove many young men—and some women—toward Trump. Deckman cautioned that more detailed data is needed to fully understand how Gen Z prioritised issues in this election.
