Plaid Cymru faces the prospect of losing its first major Senedd vote since forming a government, as no other party plans to back its supplementary budget. The vote is due in three weeks.
Supplementary Budget Details
The new Welsh Government published its first glimpse of priorities via its supplementary budget on Tuesday, June 23. Usually, there are two supplementary budgets within the financial year, but this one attracted extra attention as the first look at how Plaid would prioritise spending after forming a minority government.
While the annual budget is around £27.5bn, this supplementary budget is some £294m of spending not yet allocated within the financial year. Already, announcements include £145m for the NHS, £55m for childcare, and £15m for expanding free school meals for secondary school pupils.
Finance minister Elin Jones's statement also promised £20m to boost social housing supply, £40m to improve school buildings, and £5m for local buildings and shared spaces. It includes £8m to continue the £1 bus fare pilot for young people and £2m to support a north-south bus service due in early autumn. Another new announcement is £2m for a pilot of the Cynnal scheme, giving lower-income families £10 weekly per child, and £2m for school swimming lessons.
Political Landscape
Plaid Cymru won 43 seats in the Senedd election in May, six short of a majority of 49 in the newly expanded Senedd. The chamber comprises Reform UK (34 seats), Labour (9), Conservatives (7), Greens (2), and Liberal Democrats (1). Sources for both Labour and the Conservatives told WalesOnline they do not expect to support Plaid, which would cause the budget to fail. Reform UK's red line is a commitment to stop all international funding, which Plaid does not intend to do.
Labour's finance spokesman Huw Thomas said: "What stands out in this supplementary budget is not what's included, but what's missing. Despite every Welsh council, teaching unions, and schools calling for it, Plaid Cymru have failed to commit any of the over £300 million that's available for children with additional learning needs. We are clear that Plaid's uncosted promises should not be paid for by Welsh pupils and teachers."
ALN Funding Row
The party has repeatedly questioned £300m given by the UK Government to Wales from a decision related to special educational needs (SEN) in England, called ALN in Wales. Labour criticises that this money should be spent on ALN in Wales. However, the Welsh Government says the money came from the UK Treasury repaying deficits that English local authorities had accumulated, a position Welsh councils were not in.
First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth, previously asked by former Labour education minister Lynne Neagle about ALN allocation, replied: "The member has more knowledge than most, from her previous role, of the challenges that we face in education. It's important to point out, of course, that the money in England was in order to clear historic debts. Now, it's not for me to praise the former Labour minister, but those debts were not here in Wales, so it is not additional funding, as it were, for ALN."
Conservative leader Darren Millar said: "This budget has the wrong priorities and is taking the same failed sticking plaster approach of the last Labour government. It's time for Plaid to focus on the priorities of the people of Wales."
Finance Minister's Statement
Speaking in the Senedd, Ms Jones said: "We have inherited a challenging financial situation, and we face significant pressures across the public sector. This is a supplementary budget – a budget within a financial year." She added: "The financial situation is challenging and the financial pressures within the budgets are significant, particularly in the health service, that's why this budget keeps money unallocated to allow us to manage the financial pressures during the year."
She directly referenced the ALN funding row: "The consequential funding to the budget from the write off of local government’s special educational needs debts in England, together with the reserves at the beginning of a year, allows this government to earmark additional funding while keeping an eye on the ongoing financial pressures within our public sector." She said she has told WLGA leader Anthony Hunt to explain that councils will not receive the one-off funding to write off special education debts from England, as those debts do not exist in Wales. However, consequential funding on special educational needs will come into the budget in 2028-29: "Unlike this year's one-off funding, that will be recurrent funding. Working closely within the annual budget process will put additional learning needs on a sustainable and affordable footing for the future."
