With nearly one million fans expected to descend on Mexico for the 2026 World Cup, experts suggest that drug cartels may scale back violence to exploit the economic boost, despite ongoing security concerns. The tournament, co-hosted with the United States and Canada, will see matches in Guadalajara and Mexico City, where cartel-related violence has been a persistent issue.
In February, the killing of CJNG leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes sparked a wave of retaliatory attacks, including roadblocks and clashes that left 30 government agents and a similar number of cartel members dead. However, data from conflict analysts ACLED shows a 30% drop in organised criminal violence in Guadalajara in the first five months of 2026 compared to the previous period, with Monterrey seeing a 13% decline.
President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced the deployment of 100,000 troops under Plan Kukulkan, a security strategy involving coordination between federal, state and local agencies. FIFA has expressed confidence in the government's ability to ensure safety, but experts warn that teachers' strikes could cause disruption. The CNTE union has threatened protests over salary and pension demands, with chants of “if there is no solution, the ball won’t roll”.
Chris Sabatini of Chatham House noted that the union could block routes to stadiums, while ACLED’s Tiziano Breda highlighted an increase in protests in Monterrey and Mexico City this year. Despite these challenges, analysts believe cartels are unlikely to target the World Cup directly, as they are deeply embedded in local economies and stand to benefit from the influx of visitors.
