The election dynamic has shifted significantly, with Reform UK fielding 609 candidates this year, up from 277 in 2019. Unlike the previous election, when the Brexit party stood down in seats with incumbent Conservative MPs, Nigel Farage's party is now contesting almost every seat across Great Britain, posing a direct threat to the Tories.
According to analysis of the 2019 election, the Brexit party cost the Conservatives up to 25 seats in the 'red wall' where it stood, while the decision to stand down elsewhere saved only a handful. This time, with Farage at the helm, Reform's impact could be even more severe, as it does not need to win seats to damage the Conservatives.
Polling suggests as many as one in three 2019 Conservative voters are switching to Reform. In 'blue wall' seats where the Liberal Democrats are the main challengers, every defection from Tory to Reform brings the Lib Dems closer to victory.
Recent YouGov polling shows the Conservatives in fifth place among voters under 50, behind Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Reform and the Greens. This fragmentation of the electorate and party system serves as a warning to Labour not to take its coalition for granted.
As the campaign enters its final three weeks, the discussion has shifted from who will form the government to which party will lead the opposition, with some analysts questioning whether any party can beat the Conservatives to second place.
