Sir Keir Starmer has made a shrewd move that could thwart Andy Burnham's leadership ambitions, as the stage is set for a Labour civil war. The Prime Minister has made it clear that ministers must resign if they wish to support Burnham as his replacement, signaling that he will not step aside quietly. If Burnham wins next week's Makerfield by-election, he will not be handed the reins of power without a fight.
Starmer's Stance on Loyalty
The Prime Minister expects unwavering loyalty from his ministers, and facilitating Burnham's rise is not on his agenda. Starmer views the Mayor of Greater Manchester as a sniper from the sidelines, and the idea of handing power to a Labour insider who has twice failed to win the leadership makes his stomach churn. With a decade-long project for national renewal and unpopular decisions made for financial stability, stepping down now would look like quitting when the going gets tough.
Background and Resolve
Unlike many in political parties and think tanks, Starmer did not come from an affluent background. He rose to the top as a barrister through grit and ambition, single-handedly rescuing Labour and winning a landslide. The notion of resigning to hand control to Burnham, who has already run for leadership twice and failed, is unpalatable.
The Canny Move
Insisting that ministers must quit to back Burnham is a clever strategy. They would have to give up well-paid posts and write letters explaining why Starmer should be replaced. Unlike the mass resignations during Boris Johnson's government, which followed scandals like Partygate, they must articulate not just what is wrong with Starmer but what Burnham would do differently. If Burnham sticks to Rachel Reeves's fiscal rules, his government would follow the same track, making a leadership change look like a panicked attempt to boost polls.
Factors Favoring Starmer
Several factors could work in Starmer's favor. If Burnham arrives in Westminster with a wafer-thin majority, he will not look like a conquering king. If Labour loses the Manchester mayoralty to the Greens or Reform, Burnham's move will seem like an indulgent ego trip. Opposition MPs will demand an immediate general election if Labour changes leaders, a prospect that terrifies many Labour MPs.
The Battle Ahead
Starmer can be called many things, but not a dilettante. As the country faces renewed inflation and international turmoil, he will argue Britain needs a government hard at work, not one engaged in Tory-style leadership plotting. If Starmer and his allies believe Burnham's soft Left poses a threat to financial stability, they will fight fiercely. This World Cup summer could see a ferocious battle for the soul of Labour and the future of Britain.
