The Farrer by-election is shaping up to be a significant political setback for the Coalition, with One Nation emerging as a serious contender to secure its first-ever federal lower house seat. Voters in the sprawling south-west New South Wales electorate went to the polls on Saturday to replace former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, who had represented the area since 2001.
Electorate Background
Farrer encompasses a vast rural expanse of NSW, including towns such as Albury, Griffith, and Deniliquin. Since its creation in 1949, the seat has been held by either the Liberal or National parties, making the current contest particularly notable.
Candidate Field
The ballot features 12 candidates, but the race is widely regarded as a four-way contest among One Nation's David Farley, independent Michelle Milthorpe, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski, and Nationals candidate Brad Robertson. However, recent polling indicates that the competition has narrowed to a two-horse race between Farley and Milthorpe.
One poll places One Nation at 30.9 percent and Milthorpe at 30 percent, significantly ahead of the combined Liberal and National vote of 23.2 percent. Milthorpe previously won 20 percent of the primary vote in the 2025 federal election and finished with 43.8 percent after preferences, while Ley secured 43.4 percent of the primary vote—her worst performance in Farrer since first winning the seat.
Historic Implications
Two major firsts could become reality in this by-election. Since Labor chose not to field a candidate, it may be the first time in history that neither major political party reaches the final two-candidate preferred count in a federal election. Additionally, a victory for One Nation would deliver party leader Pauline Hanson her party's first ever federal lower house seat.
The by-election is being viewed as an electoral test of support for One Nation, with candidates making last-ditch efforts to sway voters. Photos from the polls show One Nation's David Farley, Liberal Leader Angus Taylor, Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume, and independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe all arriving to cast their votes.
