Andy Burnham has made a few gaffes in recent days, but don't underestimate him. He's just scored a brilliant victory.
The PM's recent missteps include stupidly putting social security above the defence of the realm, stumbling into the Manchester City scandal, and being publicly upbraided by MI5 for claiming Russia influenced the Brexit referendum result. But Burnham's gaffes mask the fact that his broader strategy is working rather nicely right now. It could put him in the box seat if he calls a snap election, as many expect.
By-election victory
Burnham had a big win last week when Labour retained Keir Starmer's former parliamentary seat in the St Pancras and Holborn by-election. Frankly, Labour doesn't need another backbench MP. It has 403 and most are more trouble than they're worth. But it really didn't want Green Party leader Zack Polanski rocking up at Westminster on the back of a spectacular victory. That would have been a slap in the face for Burnham and put a stop to his honeymoon.
The Greens hoovered up support from Lefties furious over Keir Starmer's Gaza policy, but now they're the ones tearing themselves apart. Hard-left activists, the sort who flocked to Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, brought their anti-Israel obsessions with them, plunging the Greens into an existential crisis.
Green Party civil war
Their stance that “Zionism is racism” effectively denies Israel's right to exist, while exposing Polanski's weakness in failing to stand up to it. The Greens are descending into civil war as the old guard struggles to save the party from the Corbynites, anti-semites and Islamists. It's an ugly spectacle, but a golden opportunity for Burnham.
Until recently, there was a growing assumption that two-party politics was dead and the next government could only be formed through some kind of alliance. That raised the terrifying prospect of a Labour-Green-Lib Dem coalition dragging Britain even further towards the left, while shutting out the right.
Burnham's strategy
Burnham has every reason to want that prospect buried, and he's taking action. Labour councils who share power with the Greens have been told to terminate agreements unless they condemn the “Zionism is racism” policy. Why share when there's a chance you can grab it all for yourself?
Burnham can now position himself as the undisputed champion of the left, picking up Green cast-offs while raiding the dwindling ranks of disillusioned Lib Dem voters.
The PM is blowing all the Leftie dog whistles. Closer alignment with the EU, talk of another Brexit referendum, rail and water nationalisation, more power for the unions and a preference for social security spending over defence. It may sound like madness to many of us, but left-wing voters have been crying out for this ever since Margaret Thatcher burst their bubble. Burnham understands his base and is relentlessly chasing it.
Angela Rayner sidelined
And there's another casualty: Angela Rayner. She’s the darling of Labour's left, keeping the flame of traditional, union-friendly, working-class politics burning under Starmer. Now Burnham is trampling all over her territory. No wonder Rayner has resorted to attacking Shabana Mahmood. Got to get her kicks somehow.
It helps that Burnham is a man, and a beery, blokey man to boot. Labour can now leave the whole lady boss thing to the Tories, and stick to their traditional comfort zone.
None of this guarantees Burnham an election victory. But Labour is edging it in the polls, the Greens are self-combusting and a Tory-Reform alliance looks off the cards, as Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage publicly slug it out. If two-party politics really is back, Burnham could be the biggest beneficiary. He's on course to own the entire left, while the right tear themselves in two. That snap election must look tempting.
