As Donald Trump's Republican party faces a likely drubbing in the November midterm elections, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese must tread carefully in engaging with an increasingly unpredictable US president. The possibility of losing control of the US Congress is already weighing on Trump's mind, according to Guardian Australia's political editor Tom McIlroy.
Putin Invited to G20 Summit
When Albanese jets to Florida for the G20 leaders summit later this year, he could come face to face with Vladimir Putin, the architect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Trump last month invited his Russian counterpart to attend the summit at his Doral golf club, marking the first time Putin has been offered a spot at major international talks since the invasion began in 2022.
The proposed guest list has angered some Republican hardliners in the US, as well as the European Union and Italy, but received cautious support from others. Germany said it could represent a chance for serious negotiations on the future of the war, if Putin meets Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Midterm Election Pressures
Less than three weeks out from the vote, the war in Iran and rising inflation are badly hurting Republicans' chances. The result is expected to be somewhere between a narrow win for Democrats and a "blue wave" ending Republican control in the House of Representatives and the Senate. The risk of myriad corruption investigations and even impeachment is real for Trump and his family.
On Friday, Trump overruled his defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, to block a planned livestreaming of the upcoming execution of Nidal Malik Hasan, the man convicted of killing 13 people at a military base at Fort Hood in Texas in 2009. Albanese called the plan "completely abhorrent" this week, saying the Australian government would do everything in its power to stop the livestreaming taking place.
US Pressure on Australia
Trump's administration is also attempting to strip Minnesota Democrat Ilhan Omar of her US citizenship, with Homeland Security officials mounting a pre-dawn raid of her home this week. The weaponisation of law enforcement to target political opponents is nothing new for Trump, but so close to an election, the political motivation is clear.
The US embassy in Canberra took the unusual step of objecting to draft legislation for a digital duty of care and moves to give social media users the ability to turn off the algorithms controlling their feed. In a submission to the government's public consultation on the laws, the US warned Labor's plans could become "a mechanism for viewpoint-based censorship".
The trade minister, Don Farrell, revealed this week the government's plans for big tech were being raised with him each time he meets with Trump's chief trade representative, Jamieson Greer. Farrell has also discussed the draft laws with the newly installed US ambassador, David Brat.
Risks to Aukus and Political Opportunities
The worst case scenario for the government would be a weakening or tearing up of the Aukus deal. As Australia pays billions of dollars to Washington, Trump insists the plan is proceeding at pace, but a material shift in US military capability, or even a change in domestic politics, would put this confidence quickly at risk.
It is also possible an erratic or unreliable Trump could be politically useful for Albanese and Labor as the next federal election approaches. Albanese says Labor represents a source of stability for voters in an increasingly unpredictable world, conditions Trump can take overwhelming credit for. Any further deterioration in the international landscape could spur voters to avoid rightwing parties such as One Nation in Australia, choosing instead to stick with the government they know.
The only safe prediction about Trump is that chaos is business as usual. Managing the relationship is complex for Albanese now, but could become a lot harder as the sun sets on the president's time in power.
