Deaths in the English Channel are expected to rise to 'devastating' levels in the coming months, as charities and experts warn that Labour's crackdown on smuggling gangs may push migrants to take even greater risks. A record 43 people have died attempting to cross the Channel this year, including 12 who drowned on Tuesday, among them six children and a pregnant woman.
Humanitarian groups are urging the government to establish safe and legal routes to offer an alternative to the dangerous crossings. However, a Home Office source, speaking anonymously, said there has been 'no talk' of developing new refugee schemes or humanitarian visas, adding: 'They are hoping they won't need to legislate on safe and legal routes, or change the current asylum law.'
Polling by Focaldata for the British Future thinktank found that half the British public would support creating visas to allow asylum seekers to travel safely to the UK, reducing demand for small boats. Yet ministers have not proposed any such measures since the election, instead focusing on setting up a new Border Security Command.
Amélie Moyart of French charity Utopia 56 said increased enforcement has led to fewer boats but more people per vessel, with the average load rising from 40 to at least 60, sometimes 80. 'All the enforcement ... is not a solution, it's just making people take more and more risk,' she said. She warned that worsening weather and cooling sea temperatures would make crossings increasingly dangerous, adding: 'If it continues in the winter it could be devastating.'
More than 22,000 people have reached the UK in small boats so far this year, slightly up on 2023 but 20% below the same period in 2022. Conservative politicians have suggested scrapping the Rwanda plan drove up crossings, but experts say there is no evidence of a deterrent effect. Dr Peter Walsh of Oxford's Migration Observatory said: 'There's no real evidence of a shift so far ... It very much looks like business as usual.'
