Claims that immigration is a primary driver of the UK housing crisis have been challenged by recent studies. A 2012 speech by then-Home Secretary Theresa May suggested that over a third of new housing demand resulted from immigration, and that without it, house prices could be 10% lower over 20 years. However, the London School of Economics report she cited also notes that migrants initially form fewer households, live in denser conditions, and rely more on private renting.
Data from the Oxford Migration Observatory shows that 74% of recent migrants (in the UK for five years or less) rent privately, compared to 39% of all foreign-born and 14% of UK-born residents. This debunks the notion that migrants disproportionately access social housing; only 9% of new social tenancies go to non-UK born individuals, down from 8.6% in 2012. Despite this, a 2014 LSE paper found white Britons perceive higher discrimination in social housing than any other group.
Research by economist Filipa Sá indicates that immigration can lower house prices in some areas. An increase of immigrants equal to 1% of the local population leads to a 1.7% reduction in house prices, as immigration often prompts native outflows and reduces overall demand. The LSE report also attributes two-thirds of housing demand to factors like declining social housing stock, rising life expectancy, and smaller household sizes.
The construction sector relies heavily on migrant labour. The Chartered Institute of Building warns that immigration caps would harm housebuilding, as insufficient UK-born workers are trained or willing to fill these roles.
