A border security expert has warned that Labour's migration U-turn could see a further 450,000 migrants claim benefits, potentially adding £5 billion to Britain's benefits bill.
Speaking on GB News Breakfast on Thursday November 5, International Border Security expert Henry Bolton discussed the implications with hosts Stephen Dixon and Dawn Neesom. The Conservatives have said Labour's policy reversal could lead to 450,000 more people claiming Universal Credit after Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood failed to tighten settlement rights for the record influx of foreign nationals who arrived earlier this decade.
Brexit's unexpected consequence
Bolton explained how the numbers had risen since Brexit because of the inflow of non-European migrants. He said that after Brexit, many of those already in the UK applied for settlement, and that this changed the numbers over the last couple of years of Brexit in terms of European migrants.
"But certainly, what's happened since is that the vast majority are non-European. So that was the unexpected consequence of Brexit," he said. "Because instead of the government applying tighter controls, which is essentially what everybody voted for, the government liberalised the controls for non-Europeans, and so really opened the door wide open for them. So those numbers, the non-European numbers, went through the roof."
Political opposition to tighter controls
Bolton said that for Shabana Mahmood and the Labour Party, the U-turn creates a problem because a number of Labour MPs and a large proportion of their supporters are ideologically opposed to tighter immigration controls. He noted that in Folkestone, Kent, where he lives, the Green, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties have all voted in the local authority to make the town a district of sanctuary, despite people having landed on the beach there.
"They're not on the same wavelength as those people like me who say: 'Hang on, we need tighter controls. We need to manage this properly. We need to manage the numbers. We need to vet the people,'" he said.
Benefits projections
His remarks came as new analysis suggested that of the 1.4 million people expected to gain indefinite leave to remain, around a third could claim benefits. Department for Work and Pensions figures show that 220,283 people with Indefinite Leave to Remain were receiving Universal Credit in December 2025, around 32 per cent of the estimated 690,926 non-EU citizens with settled status. If a similar rate goes on to claim Universal Credit from the so-called Boris Wave, it will cost £5.2 billion.
The projection comes as the Conservatives try to convince voters they understand the fury over more than 4 million people moving to the UK in four years.
