The Conservatives are facing mounting pressure from senior party figures to stand aside in the upcoming Makerfield by-election, allowing Reform UK a clear run against Labour candidate Andy Burnham. The by-election, expected on June 18, has sparked internal debate within the Tory ranks about the best strategy to counter the Left-wing Mayor of Greater Manchester's bid to return to Westminster.
Electoral arithmetic favours a pact
At the 2024 general election, Labour secured Makerfield with a majority of 5,399 over Reform, while the Conservatives finished third with 4,379 votes. If the Tories were to withdraw, the combined Right-wing vote could potentially overturn Labour's lead. Several Conservative MPs have argued that a pact with Nigel Farage's party is essential to avoid splitting the anti-Labour vote.
Senior Tories voice support
Former business secretary Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has called for a quid pro quo arrangement with Reform for both the Makerfield and Aberdeen South by-elections. He urged both parties to put the 'interests of the country ahead of narrower party-political interests' to counter the 'very Left-wing prospect that is in sight'. He added: 'At the local elections Reform did very well, but not well enough to form a majority in Parliament, and therefore both sides should realise that to get to a majority we need to work together.'
Another senior Tory MP told the Mail: 'My view would be that given we're very unlikely to win it, it would be better if we didn't put much effort into the campaign. It would be much better for us to have a Reform victory than a Labour victory, and given I'm hopeful the Right can unite and we can work together over the next few years it would provide some early proof.' They warned that Labour could experience a 'bounce' in the polls under a new leader, adding: 'It's much better for both the Conservatives and Reform to keep Starmer because he's so unpopular. If we can stop Burnham winning the by-election, where does that leave Labour?'
Cross-party deal proposed
Tory MP Sir Edward Leigh suggested a mutual non-competition agreement: his party should not stand in Makerfield in return for Reform doing the same in Aberdeen South, where a by-election follows SNP MP Stephen Flynn's resignation to take a Scottish Parliament seat. 'If doing some kind of deal means we can win Aberdeenshire and save the Union, it's worth doing,' Sir Edward told The Telegraph. 'If in any by-election there are two Right-wing parties fighting each other ... there will be Left-wing victory.'
Third-party challenge emerges
Rupert Lowe's hard-Right party Restore Britain has announced it will field a candidate in Makerfield, potentially splitting the Reform vote. Announcing local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as its candidate, Lowe said: 'We are in this to win it.' Meanwhile, Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and former soldier who stood for Reform at the 2024 general election, is considered a leading contender to take on Burnham.
Party leadership resists
Despite internal pressure, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has firmly ruled out any electoral pact with Reform. She told GB News: 'We will be standing a candidate at this election. Everybody should compete and the people of the constituency should make their choice about who it is they want to represent them.' Both Reform and the Conservatives are expected to unveil their candidates this week, while Burnham is widely seen as Labour's likely nominee.
