US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet Gulf allies on Tuesday and Wednesday in an effort to reassure them that the United States remains committed to their security and that the 60-day ceasefire deal struck with Iran last week will not embolden Tehran. The visit, announced by the State Department, comes amid deep divisions within the Gulf over the agreement.
Gulf Concerns Over Iran Deal
While Qatar played a central role in mediating the ceasefire, some Gulf nations—notably the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain—fear the deal hands Iran substantial sums that could be funneled into its military. Donald Trump claimed in a post on his Truth Social platform Tuesday that unfrozen Iranian assets would be under US control and used to purchase food and medical supplies from the US. He also asserted that Iran had agreed to allow nuclear inspections far into the future, despite Tehran's denials.
Rubio, making his first trip to the region since the US and Israel initiated military operations on February 28, will visit the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain. He is also expected to meet officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council. All three countries host large US military bases and have been targeted by Iranian missiles, though the US has declined to detail the extent of the impacts, imposing severe penalties on those who reveal damage via social media.
Regional Tensions and Iranian Strategy
Trump disclosed last week that the UAE actively participated in counterattacks against Iran. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated that Iran believes the UAE, Kuwait, and Jordan assisted the US in attacking Iran. "We will definitely not abandon this issue. We will both document and demand," Baghaei said. "The US military presence in the region has shown what consequences and harm it has brought to the region and its countries. We hope that the countries of the region have learned from the experience of the past few months and years."
Iran's long-term objective is to persuade Gulf states to expel US forces. Amid ongoing internal debate, some Iranian voices advocate rapprochement with the region, potentially forming an alliance with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian traveled to Pakistan on Tuesday for his first overseas visit since the war ended. The UAE, which has the closest economic ties with Iran among Gulf states, has also shown signs of seeking to defuse tensions.
Financial Aspects of the Ceasefire
Under the ceasefire terms, Iran expects approximately $6 billion of its assets frozen in Qatar due to US sanctions to be unfrozen, with an additional $6 billion provided by Doha as a repayable loan. Over the next two months, Iran could receive at least $8 billion in income following the US Treasury's decision Monday to issue a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil exports, allowing payments in dollars. Some Iranian estimates suggest unhindered oil sales—primarily to China—could exceed $30 billion annually. Iran has long evaded sanctions by covertly trading with China at discounted prices.
Shipping monitor Kepler reported that 36 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the highest traffic volume since March 1. Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated he is working with Oman on a long-term agreement to manage the strait, having met the Sultan of Oman in Muscat on Monday.
Disputes Over Asset Use and Nuclear Inspections
Tehran and Washington clashed Monday over whether unfrozen Iranian assets can only be used to buy US agricultural products like soybeans, as claimed by Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Iran's central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati, said the memorandum of understanding does not obligate Iran to spend unfrozen assets on US goods, with purchase decisions based on quality and price. Iran also disputed claims that UN nuclear inspectorate chief Rafael Grossi had been given a green light to inspect damaged nuclear sites. Baghaei stated, "We have neither met with Grossi nor do we have any plans for the agency to inspect the damaged nuclear facilities resulting from the aggression of the United States and the Zionist regime. There is no protocol in this regard. We will continue the current procedure based on the nuclear non-proliferation treaty." Previously, Iran allowed more intrusive inspections under an additional protocol.
Lebanon Ceasefire Complications
Iran indicated further work is needed on a mechanism to monitor the proposed Lebanon ceasefire. The MOU states that the US, Iran, and "their allies in the current war" declare the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon," a formulation that appears to bind Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah. This could complicate the US-backed Israel-Lebanon ceasefire reached in early June, which required any cessation of hostilities to be agreed directly between Israel and Lebanon.
