Labour is predicted to lose more than 75 per cent of the council seats it is defending in next week's local elections across England, according to a new assessment from polling expert Lord Robert Hayward. The Conservative peer forecasts that Sir Keir Starmer's party will lose 1,850 seats, while Reform UK is set to gain 1,550 and the Greens 500.
Lord Hayward described the scale of the losses as 'drastic', noting that Labour is defending 2,557 seats. He said the party is facing a 'pincer movement' between the Greens and Reform. The prediction comes after a cabinet minister reportedly said that losing more than 1,500 seats would trigger a 'collective nervous breakdown' among colleagues.
The elections follow a difficult month for the prime minister, who has faced the Mandelson scandal, the fallout from the Middle East conflict, and economic concerns. Lord Hayward said Reform would get a 'big boost', though he warned that winning seats could be a 'poisoned chalice' if they take control of councils.
For the Conservatives, Lord Hayward projects a loss of 600 seats, partly due to postponed county elections, but said the party would still be 'disappointed'. The Liberal Democrats are forecast to gain 150 seats, but need to win councils to be 'in the conversation'. Dr Hannah Bunting of the University of Exeter said the results would show a continuation of political fragmentation affecting both the Conservatives and Labour.
Ahead of the polls, the prime minister's spokesperson framed the choice as between Labour working in partnership with a Labour government, or Reform putting families and the NHS at risk. The spokesperson declined to speculate on the outcome, highlighting the government's record on workers' rights, public services, and child poverty.
