The final New York Times poll ahead of the US midterm elections gives Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico a seven-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, a state considered a Trump stronghold. The poll suggests Democrats could seize a portion of Congress in what is shaping up to be an embarrassing night for Donald Trump.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has opened up an 11-point lead over Trump-backed Republican Mike Rogers. The poll comes as Republicans reportedly watched with concern over reports of huge early turnout in Texas, including many young Hispanic people who did not vote in 2024.
Historic Senate Races in Play
The last time Texas elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 1988, a year before Talarico was born. Democrats are also predicted to win Senate seats in Maine, Ohio and Kansas, where Trump visited on Sunday night for the second time during the campaign. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
The poll also shows Democrats with a slight lead in Alaska and Iowa, though that lead is within the margin of error.
Michigan Drama Unfolds
The poll results came at the end of a day of high drama in Michigan, where Haley Stevens, a moderate Democrat defeated by El-Sayed to represent the party in the Senate race, announced she would be voting for MAGA Republican Mike Rogers.
The shock twist came after a row between the candidates over Israel and an ad by a third-party group which some, including Stevens, said crossed the line into antisemitism. Despite settling their differences, Stevens' fiancé, Jason Turkish, gave interviews over the weekend attacking El-Sayed and endorsing Rogers. It emerged that El-Sayed had told Stevens she was no longer welcome at his campaign events.
After telling allies on Saturday night that she would not be switching sides, Stevens appeared at a church photo op with Rogers on Sunday morning. Standing next to Rogers at a chaotic press conference outside the church, Stevens said: "Abdul made very clear that I was not welcome in his campaign, that he didn't need me there, that he didn't want me there."
She added: "I did endorse the Democratic nominee, and he chose to close this campaign by saying I wasn't welcome. I've never been invited to a campaign event. That's fine. You know, he's busy. He's running all around."
Fallout and Reactions
After a car crash CNN interview where Stevens struggled to defend her decision, fellow Michigan congresswoman Debbie Dingell said: "That was one of the most painful interviews I have ever watched."
Dingell added: "I have been worried about her all last week. She's a human being. I have had multiple conversations with her. I'm far from being the only one that has."
Stevens' entire staff resigned following her announcement, and the Michigan Democratic Party are understood to have expelled her. Asked if she was surprised by Stevens' move, Dingell said: "I was stunned since she had told me she wasn't doing that last night at midnight."
