A new poll has suggested Jeremy Corbyn could be defeated in Islington North at the next general election, expected in 2029. The MRP survey by Electoral Calculus/FindOutNow put Labour's candidate on 36% compared to 18% for the independent.
MRP research (multi-level regression and post-stratification) is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results. It does not take into account the prominence or popularity of individual candidates, so the findings need to be treated with caution.
Poll Shows Labour Surge in London
Other recent polls have suggested Mr Corbyn, who was first elected to Parliament in 1983, would retain his seat. However, the latest survey put Labour on 34% in London, up nine percentage points since July, the Greens down three to 18%, Tories down two to 16%, Reform UK unchanged on 13%, Liberal Democrats down two to 9%, Restore up one to 7%, and independents/minor parties down two to 3%.
If this snapshot turned out to be correct it would mean Labour winning every seat in Inner London, including Islington North.
Electoral Calculus Chief Urges Caution
Few independents succeed in holding onto parliamentary seats in the long term. However, Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, warned against writing off Mr Corbyn, 77, already despite the poll's finding. He told The Standard: "I'd be a bit cautious on treating that as gospel. I've been a long-term resident of Islington myself, and I know how popular Jeremy Corbyn is in his Islington North constituency, even after he left the Labour Party to stand as an independent at the last election. So, the polling we've done has been up and down. Sometimes we see Corbyn keeping the seat, sometimes just not. But I would not bet against him at the moment. My gut tells me it's going to be quite close, and that I wouldn't write Jeremy Corbyn off yet."
A recent YouGov poll suggested Mr Corbyn would hold onto his seat, by 41% to Labour's 28%.
Previous Majority Under Threat
At the 2024 general election, he got 24,120 votes, or 49.2%, compared to Labour's candidate, Praful Nargund, who was backed by 16,873 voters, or 34.4%. But his majority of 7,247 could be under threat from the rise in support for Labour under Andy Burnham and Zack Polanski's Green Party still being a political force in London. It is in second place in the capital, according to the latest poll, despite Mr Polanski's fall in popularity and the storm over party members voting to declare Zionism as racism. Mr Corbyn is also now the parliamentary leader of Your Party, rather than an independent MP by himself.
A spokesperson for Mr Corbyn said: "In 2024, Jeremy defeated the odds and won decisively as an independent, thanks to a people-powered campaign. He remains the proud MP for Islington North, and is determined as ever to campaign alongside his constituents for a more equal, sustainable and peaceful world."
