The release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners has highlighted the initial success of Donald Trump's Gaza plan, but experts warn that unresolved details could lead to the same failures as the Oslo accords. Jared Kushner, who helped broker the deal, argued that leaving specifics for later was key to reaching an agreement, yet this approach mirrors past peace efforts that ultimately collapsed.
One major sticking point is the extent of Israeli withdrawal. Israel has pulled back from major cities but still occupies about 53% of Gaza, with further withdrawals tied to an international stabilisation force and a security buffer zone. However, Benjamin Netanyahu's recent statements suggest a different intention, stating that the IDF remains deep inside Gaza and controls all dominating points. Precedents from Syria and Lebanon indicate that Israel has not fully adhered to similar agreements.
Disarmament of Hamas is another critical issue. A senior Hamas official has declared disarmament 'out of the question', and armed fighters have been seen in Gaza, signalling an attempt to reassert authority. The history of Hamas's rule suggests that when it retains arms, it seeks to develop its military infrastructure. No practical plan for disarmament has been provided, and questions remain about whether Hamas would trust Egyptian or international control of weapons.
The proposed international stabilisation force (ISF) is intended to provide long-term security and allow Israel to withdraw without Hamas rebuilding. However, key details are unresolved, including a UN mandate, contributing nations, and the force's exact role. A western diplomat noted that no one expects the force to fight Hamas, but its mere presence could deter conflict. Scepticism persists about whether these issues can be resolved to achieve lasting peace.
