The deadlocked war in Iran, now entering its fourth month, is drawing comparisons with previous US quagmires in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam. However, the negative international humanitarian, economic and geopolitical fallout from this conflict looks set to prove more permanently damaging than any of those past US-made disasters.
An urgent question arises: who will stop Donald Trump? Having started something he cannot finish, the US president has boxed himself into a corner. Either he resumes the illegal bombing of Iran on an even bigger scale, or he accepts a negotiated compromise that falls embarrassingly short of his initial aims. Neither choice is attractive or tenable for Trump, who knows that bombing cannot defeat Iran's defiance.
A peace deal broadly in line with Barack Obama's 2015 nuclear pact, which Trump wrecked, would be counted an abject failure and a landmark US strategic defeat. Any deal leaving Iran charging transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz would be humiliating. Trump's approval ratings have collapsed to about 37%, reflecting his indecisive and erratic approach.
The war is causing immense harm worldwide. In Somalia, staple food prices have doubled, and fertiliser shortages threaten devastating famines. The World Food Programme predicts an additional 45 million people will face acute hunger if the war continues. Developed countries are penalised through spiralling energy and food prices, with the IMF cutting its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026.
The conflict is also upending the geopolitical balance. The US is at odds with allies like Germany, France and Britain, while Gulf states question the US alliance. This boosts Russia and hurts Ukraine, while China's global ascendancy is confirmed as Trump fails to secure its help on Iran. The universally negative knock-on effects undermine democratic accountability, political stability, human rights and international law.
