Former US Soft Power Official Issues Dire Warning on Trump's Legacy
In the summer of 2003, while driving through a small South African beach town, I encountered a newspaper headline that read: "WHY BUSH IS WORSE THAN BIN LADEN." This stark message, displayed far from American shores during the Iraq war, highlighted a painful reality: global perceptions of the United States swing dramatically with presidential leadership and military conflicts. The international goodwill America enjoyed after September 11 was rapidly squandered following the invasion of Iraq, with favorability ratings plummeting to 30-40%—a modern low at that time.
The Rise and Fall of American Soft Power
American favorability had previously reached impressive heights under various administrations. Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush all maintained ratings above 50%, while Bill Clinton achieved remarkable approval in the 70% range internationally. Notably, some military actions proved more popular than others; the Gulf War to liberate Kuwait under George H.W. Bush received widespread global support. Following the Iraq war decline, Barack Obama's election sparked a resurgence, with American favorability soaring to 75-80% in numerous countries.
Soft power—the ability to influence through cultural appeal rather than military might—has long been America's secret weapon. While government programs like foreign aid and international broadcasting (such as Voice of America) supported this influence, cultural exports consistently outperformed bureaucratic efforts. Beyoncé's global impact far exceeds that of any state department initiative, demonstrating that influence often trumps raw power. Typically, American soft power thrives when military action recedes, allowing figures like Taylor Swift to wield more international sway than Tomahawk missiles.
The Role of Soft Power Czar
As under secretary of state for public diplomacy during the Obama administration, I served as America's soft power czar—essentially the chief marketing officer for "Brand USA." My mission involved shaping and promoting America's image abroad through cultural diplomacy and strategic communication. During the Cold War, we deployed cultural ambassadors like Louis Armstrong and Ella Fitzgerald to Eastern Europe, showcasing American values of freedom and diversity while countering Soviet propaganda about racial segregation in the American South.
These efforts weren't entirely altruistic; many were CIA-funded initiatives designed to combat negative perceptions. American influence campaigns in countries like Guatemala, Iran, and Italy represented the darker aspects of soft power, where strategic interests sometimes overshadowed idealistic messaging.
Trump's Transformative Impact
I believe Donald Trump's presidency and his war in Iran will drive American popularity to unprecedented lows this century, potentially preventing recovery to the median levels seen under Carter and Reagan. Obama-era approval ratings now seem unattainable. Before the Iran invasion, global confidence in Trump's ability to handle international affairs already languished around 30-40%, which may become the new ceiling for American favorability.
Allies and adversaries alike have grown weary of America's political pendulum, where conservative administrations alternate with liberal ones. When Joe Biden declared "America was back" after his election, allies responded with a skeptical "For how long?" This question has proven prescient, as Biden's internationalist approach now appears the aberration rather than Trump's authoritarian tendencies.
The Ugly American Transformed
With military actions in Iran and Venezuela, plus increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward Cuba, the Trump administration has revived the "Ugly American" stereotype—but with a crucial difference. Historically, this archetype depicted Americans as naive, culturally insensitive, yet occasionally well-meaning. Trump has transformed this image into the "Immoral American": a predatory, transactional figure who understands the world's complexities but chooses exploitation over ethical engagement. This new prototype cannot be reformed; it must be replaced.
European media reflects this shift. Le Monde described the Iran war as "A Reckless Imperial Error," while Die Zeit asked "How Trump is turning the U.S. into a source of chaos." Financial markets no longer find reassurance in Trump's outbursts, according to French analysis.
Global Reactions and Consequences
Support for the Iran war remains minimal among traditional allies. In Germany, the UK, Spain, and France, approval ratings languish in the 20s, with one in five Europeans viewing the United States—not Iran—as the principal threat to world peace. When Trump awkwardly referenced Pearl Harbor while seeking Japanese assistance in the Strait of Hormuz, he seemingly forgot that foreign leaders answer to domestic constituencies where war support stands at just 10%.
The administration's "America First" approach has largely translated to "America Alone," with unilateral actions frequently undertaken without ally consultation, followed by complaints when support isn't forthcoming. This contrasts sharply with the Bush administration's painstaking efforts to enlist international backing for the Iraq war through UN diplomacy.
Militaristic Messaging and Cultural Damage
Trump's macho rhetoric ("the big one is coming soon") and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's declaration ("we'll negotiate with bombs") reinforce an image of America as violence-obsessed and careless about military consequences. The Defense Department's release of Top Gun-style videos interspersed with clips from Braveheart, Breaking Bad, and video games like Call of Duty appears both juvenile and triumphalist. While these games contribute to American soft power, gamifying warfare undermines it profoundly.
No cultural export—no movie, song, or video game—can compensate for errant missiles killing dozens of children at a girls' school. While some nations like Israel, Poland, Nigeria, and the Philippines maintain 80%+ American favorability (where swaggering hegemony proves popular), the moral fallout from the Iran war will echo for decades, with many regions viewing it as equivalent to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Systematic Dismantling of Soft Power Institutions
Trump's authoritarian approach has devastated American soft power infrastructure. He has:
- Eviscerated USAID, undermining America's reputation for generosity
- Pardoned January 6 rioters and deployed ICE aggressively, tarnishing democratic credentials
- Implemented restrictive visa policies against "shithole" countries, contradicting America's immigrant-welcoming image
- Arrested graduate students for government criticism, compromising free speech principles
Simultaneously, the administration has actively dismantled international connections, withdrawing from the World Health Organization, UNESCO, the Paris Climate Agreement, and the UN Human Rights Council. Tariffs have functioned as taxes pushing nations away, while criticism focuses on minor free-speech violations among allies while ignoring severe restrictions in China, Russia, and Turkey.
Economic and Educational Consequences
American global media—once reaching over 300 million people worldwide—has been essentially killed, with Voice of America, Radio Europe, and VOA Persian service dismantled. Visa policies have wounded America's prestigious university system, with new international enrollment falling approximately 20%, representing a $40+ billion economic loss and jeopardizing 350,000 jobs. International tourism has declined about 7%, costing another $10 billion, while foreign STEM students and scientists increasingly migrate to China and European allies.
The Path to "Little America"
As America's former soft power diplomat, I witnessed government limitations in promoting favorability. When we advocate freedom and rule of law abroad while failing to demonstrate them domestically, we appear as hypocrites. Today's unprecedented diplomatic disengagement diminishes Brand USA deliberately, unraveling what truly made America influential.
Trump is executing a slow-motion version of Great Britain's post-World War II transformation from imperial hegemon to medium-sized European nation focused on domestic recovery. Post-Trump America risks becoming "Little America": smaller, meaner, less shiny, with fewer international connections but an outsized military, willing to do anything for profit—a fortress nation protected by oceans and content with insular self-absorption.
We were never quite the shining city on the hill we imagined, but post-Trump, the United States may become permanently diminished in global stature and moral authority.
