Trump's Hormuz Blockade Threat Pushes Oil to $148, Risks War with China
Donald Trump's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian shipping and vessels paying Tehran illegal tolls, combined with Iran's own blockade of the vital oil artery, has sent the price of a physical barrel of crude oil soaring to $148. This dramatic escalation in the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran is strangling global trade and crippling the world economy, with all three nations now facing accusations of violating international law.
Global Economic Slowdown and Legal Violations
The conflict has already caused a global economic slowdown, surging prices for oil, gas, fertilizer, helium, and numerous petrochemicals. America's specific threat to violate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea by targeting international shipping—which moves approximately one-fifth of the world's fuel through the strait—places Washington squarely in the dock alongside Iran and Israel.
China imports about 31 percent of the oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, with India taking 14 percent. In total, a staggering 86 percent of all Gulf oil transported via this route is destined for Asian markets. Consequently, Beijing has issued calls for "restraint" as both the US and Iran desperately seek a conflict arena where they can claim some form of victory.
A Direct Strategic Threat to China
The mechanics of a potential US blockade remain unclear, but the implications for China are stark. China purchases about 80 percent of Iran's oil exports, amounting to up to 1.5 million barrels per day. Therefore, any threat against ships carrying Iranian oil through the only exit from the Gulf constitutes a direct strategic threat against Beijing.
Sinking a vessel transporting oil to China would not only be an environmental catastrophe but could theoretically be interpreted by Beijing as an act of war. Similarly, US forces boarding Iranian tankers in international waters to enforce sanctions would likely be contested by China and Tehran as violations of international maritime laws.
Beijing's Calculated Response and Regional Precedents
While Beijing is unlikely to adopt an overtly belligerent stance, President Xi Jinping would undoubtedly note the precedent of a superpower acting like a pirate by disregarding regulations designed to ensure the free passage of goods globally. This comes against the backdrop of China's own controversial activities in the South China Sea, where it has built artificial islands to expand sovereignty claims—actions deemed illegal by the US and UN.
In a recent social media post, Trump asserted, "other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION." However, no American allies have yet agreed to participate in what many view as an illegal blockade.
Failed Diplomacy and Escalating Stakes
This new tactic emerged after intensive face-to-face talks between Iran and the US, led by Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan, failed to yield any concessions from Tehran on its nuclear program. The US and its allies insist Iran must permanently shut down its nuclear ambitions.
Trump is running out of options to extract America from a war that may have aligned with Israel's far-right agenda to cripple regional threats but has delivered no tangible successes for Washington. Forcing the issue around the Strait of Hormuz is part of a continued, yet failed, effort to draw traditional allies into the Middle Eastern conflict.
International Efforts and the Path Forward
Later this week, the UK and France will jointly host an international summit to develop a "defensive mission" to protect the straits, explicitly leaving the US, Israel, and Iran to resolve their war. As Sir Keir Starmer posted on X, the mission will "advance work on a coordinated, independent, multinational plan to safeguard international shipping when the conflict ends."
The phrase "when the conflict ends" underscores a consistent principle among European and other allies, who see no strategic benefit or imperative behind the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Meanwhile, Tehran continues to internationalize the war, demanding that any ceasefire with the US and Israel also include an end to attacks in Lebanon, where Israel is campaigning against Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
A War of Words and Escalating Threats
Israel and the US have rejected this demand, but Washington is now trapped in a puzzle of its own making: how to exit a war with Iran without achieving any of its aims. The regime in Tehran remains in power, continues to support militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, refuses to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and threatens America's Gulf allies with its missile program.
In language as directly threatening as that used by Iran's ayatollahs against Israel, Trump has menaced to "put an end to Persian civilization." This week, he adds threats of piracy and outright war against China—a nuclear power with a massive military. China's dignified response to Trump's irrational threats makes Washington appear like the base of unhinged fanatics, while Beijing, a rapidly expanding commercial imperial power, emerges as a refuge for rationality in an increasingly volatile global landscape.
