Saudi Arabia’s refusal to allow the United States to use its bases and airspace for a military escort of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz led Donald Trump to shelve the plan, known as Project Freedom, just days after its launch.
Riyadh informed the White House that it would not permit the use of Prince Sultan airbase for the operation, which the US had touted as the successor to the bombing campaign Operation Epic Fury. Despite a personal call between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump, Saudi Arabia maintained its objections, according to NBC News.
The confrontation, which Riyadh has not denied, underscores Saudi Arabia’s desire for a permanent end to the damaging US-Israel war on Iran on almost any terms. This contrasts with the more assertive stance of its Gulf neighbour, the United Arab Emirates.
In a sign of the Emirates’ frustration with Riyadh’s caution, the UAE has already left the Saudi-dominated OPEC and is now considering leaving the Arab League. As a signatory to the Abraham Accords, the UAE has long been closer to Israel, but tensions within the Gulf have widened as the war has dragged on, causing significant damage to their economies and international image.
The Emirates are furious that they have been the biggest target for Iranian attacks and feel there has been insufficient solidarity across the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia also feared that Project Freedom lacked clear terms of engagement and could escalate into a risky naval confrontation between Iran and the US, effectively ending the ceasefire that had been partially in force since 7 April. Iran had explicitly stated that it would treat any US military escort of oil tankers or attacks on Iranian shipping as breaches of the ceasefire, exposing Gulf states to further attacks.
An end to the ceasefire would not only result in a naval conflict in the Strait but also lead Tehran to resume its damaging drone and missile attacks on US bases in the Gulf and regional energy installations. Those attacks have likely caused more damage to Gulf infrastructure than previously reported.
The Saudi intervention will also be seen as a late expression of Riyadh’s lack of confidence in Trump’s handling of the conflict. Riyadh was often left looking like an aggrieved but powerless victim of a conflict it had never advocated. It was neither impressed by the degree of protection the US provided from Iranian attacks nor the coherence of White House strategy.
One Saudi diplomat said it was obvious for a long time that the US had landed itself in a conflict it could neither escalate nor exit.
There was surprise on Tuesday when, after spending two days building up the significance of Project Freedom, Trump posted a message reversing course. He claimed the operation was being halted for a short period by mutual agreement because great progress had been made towards a deal with Iran, partly due to China’s intervention. He said the suspension would allow time to see if an agreement could be reached.
Trump made no reference to Saudi objections or the denial of airspace. His surprise decision also undercut a day of heavy messaging by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, and the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine. All had stated that the operation would finally guarantee freedom of navigation for the hundreds of ships stranded in the Strait. The plan had been for the US blockade of Iranian ports to continue.
Saudi Arabia may also have been concerned that Project Freedom would draw in the Houthis in Yemen. Riyadh has been working hard behind the scenes to keep the armed political and religious group out of the conflict. Closure of the Red Sea route through Houthi interventions would only worsen the threat to essential oil supplies worldwide. The Saudis had reached an agreement with Iran that safeguarded their pipeline to Yanbu, ensuring they could export as much as 50% of their output via the Red Sea.
The Emirates, by contrast, had been much bolder than Riyadh in trying to get their oil tankers past the Iranian blockade, often turning off their transponders in the hope of not being tracked.
Riyadh’s intervention, which has reduced Trump’s options to break the blockade, is likely to prompt a further deterioration in Saudi-Emirati relations. Riyadh was already concerned that deepening UAE-Israel ties could extend to a small number of Israeli troops operating on Emirati soil. Saudi Arabia, with a much larger population, has to tread more carefully regarding Israel. With France, it led efforts to revive the concept of a two-state solution in which a Palestinian state is recognised internationally.
Saudi Arabia has separate points of dispute with the Emirates in Yemen, Somalia, and Sudan. None of these will be made easier if the US has to settle with Iran on terms that the Emirates and Israel believe fail the minimal objectives of Tehran’s critics.
