Venezuela's Machado to Hold Madrid Rally as Opposition Frozen Out
Exiled Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado will seek to reignite her campaign for political change with a significant rally in Madrid this Saturday. This move comes as she finds herself increasingly marginalised following Donald Trump's decision to back Delcy Rodríguez after the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
"Venezuela will be free," declared the Nobel Peace Prize laureate in an interview ahead of the demonstration at Puerta del Sol square, which is anticipated to attract tens of thousands of supporters. Machado, whose movement is widely believed to have defeated Maduro in Venezuela's 2024 presidential election, has been unable to return to her homeland since departing last December to receive her Nobel prize in Oslo.
From Elation to Frustration: Trump's Shift Stuns Opposition
Initial hopes that Machado would assume power after US forces captured her autocratic rival on 3 January were swiftly dashed. Instead, Trump endorsed Maduro's vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, in a deal involving concessions related to Venezuela's substantial oil and mineral wealth. "We're very happy with the president-elect that we have right now," Trump stated earlier this month, despite Rodríguez not having been democratically elected.
Washington appears concerned that Machado's presence in Venezuela could trigger social unrest and disrupt Trump's strategy to exploit the nation's oil reserves. Consequently, she remains stranded abroad while Rodríguez consolidates her position, purging key Maduro allies from government and projecting an image of a capable technocrat poised to revive the struggling economy.
The streets of Caracas now display campaign-style propaganda posters featuring Rodríguez's face alongside the slogan: "Onwards, Delcy, you have my trust." In a recent interview with El País, her brother, powerful national assembly chief Jorge Rodríguez, avoided specifying when fresh elections might occur, emphasising instead that "the most important thing right now is the economy."
Growing Despair Within Opposition Ranks
Members of Machado's movement express deepening frustration at being excluded from their country's political future and the stalled democratic transition post-Maduro. Veteran US diplomat Tom Shannon, who has worked on Venezuela since the 1990s, remarked: "Every day that [Rodríguez] is there, is a day that the democratic opposition is not there … and it's devastating for the opposition."
Shannon noted that Trump's focus on Iran has alleviated pressure on Rodríguez, enabling her to strengthen her grip. "The pressure's off now because all of our military attention is directed elsewhere and there just isn't the bandwidth to keep the pressure on in Venezuela," he explained, highlighting how Washington is "rehabilitating" Rodríguez by lifting sanctions and issuing licences to stimulate US investment.
Calls for Machado's Return and Constitutional Clarity
At a recent conference in Miami, Machado ally Omar González lamented that two crucial elements were overlooked in Washington's three-step plan for "stabilisation, recovery and transition": the will of the Venezuelan people, who reject Rodríguez's "gang of criminals," and the constitution, which mandates elections within seven months of a president's absence.
González argued that Machado's return from exile could "unlock" the situation, predicting a coordinated effort akin to a "Normandy landing" where Venezuelan exiles would return by land, air, and sea to champion democracy. However, the timing and manner of her potential return remain uncertain, as does the response from Rodríguez's regime. Delcy Rodríguez recently warned that the conservative politician would need to be "held accountable" if she did return.
Mixed Assessments of Venezuela's Current State
Walter Molina, a Venezuelan political scientist based in Argentina, acknowledged that conditions have improved since the end of Maduro's "absolute tyranny," yet significant challenges persist, with over 500 political prisoners still detained and Maduro's allies retaining influence. "If we were 50 floors below ground before, we are 35 floors below ground now … And if María Corina Machado returns I think we'll be getting close to the ground floor," he observed.
"[Before] it was impossible to see a way out. Now you can see one. The question now is: how far away is this way out? And how far are we from the light at the end of the tunnel?" Molina added, capturing the cautious optimism tempered by ongoing obstacles.
Diplomatic Engagements and Political Snubs
Earlier this week, Machado met with French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten. Despite the high-profile nature of Saturday's rally, she confirmed there are no plans to meet Spain's socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez during her Madrid visit. Sánchez, a vocal critic of Trump's military interventions in Venezuela and Iran, has questioned the legality of the US actions in seizing Maduro.
In contrast, Machado has expressed gratitude to Trump for intervening, even presenting him with her gold Nobel Peace Prize medal in January. Speaking to Spain's Cope radio station, she emphasised that securing Venezuela's return to freedom and democracy remains "the most important objective," noting that "there are times when holding certain meetings to that end are appropriate and there are times when they're not appropriate."
While Sánchez attends a progressive leaders' meeting in Barcelona this weekend, Machado did meet with Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of Spain's conservative People's Party, and Santiago Abascal, head of the far-right Vox party, on Friday, underscoring her efforts to garner international support despite the complex political landscape.
