Military Simulation Forecasts Russian Invasion of NATO Member Lithuania
A detailed wargame conducted by former German and NATO officials has produced alarming conclusions about a potential Russian invasion of Lithuania within the current year. The simulation, which envisages a scenario unfolding in October 2026, suggests Moscow could achieve most of its strategic objectives within a matter of days by exploiting a fabricated humanitarian crisis as justification for military action.
Scenario: Seizure of Marijampole Under False Pretences
The exercise posits that Russia would manufacture claims of a humanitarian emergency in its Kaliningrad exclave to justify moving troops into the Lithuanian city of Marijampole. This location is critically important as it hosts a key road intersection. The Via Baltica highway runs southwest to Poland, used by the EU and Ukraine, while an east-west road links Belarus and Kaliningrad, which Lithuania is treaty-bound to keep open to Russian traffic.
In the simulated invasion, Russia would deploy an initial force of only 15,000 troops. According to Bartłomiej Kot, a Polish security analyst who participated as the Polish prime minister in the wargame, "The Russians achieved most of their goals without moving many of their own units." He added, "What this showed to me is that once we are confronted by the escalatory narrative from the Russian side, we have it embedded in our thinking that we are the ones who should be de-escalating."
NATO Response: Hesitation and Division
The simulation forecast a fragmented and hesitant response from NATO members. Crucially, the United States would decline to invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which mandates collective defence if a member state is attacked. Germany's response would be characterised by uncertainty, with a pre-deployed brigade in Lithuania failing to intervene after Russia used drones to lay mines near a military base.
Poland, while mobilising its forces, would ultimately refrain from sending troops into Lithuania to assist in its defence. Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst who acted as the Russian chief of general staff in the game, explained, "Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will, and in the wargame my 'Russian colleagues' and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win."
Growing European Security Concerns
This wargame was conducted amid escalating fears across Europe regarding a potential Russian attack on NATO territory. Last year witnessed repeated incursions by Russian drones and fighter jets into NATO airspace, actions that experts interpret as deliberate probes to test the alliance's defensive responses and resolve.
Netherlands Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans highlighted these concerns, stating that assessments indicate "Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year." He further noted, "We see that they are already increasing their strategic inventories, and are expanding their presence and assets along the NATO borders."
The exercise was jointly organised in December by the German newspaper Die Welt and the German Wargaming Center of the Helmut-Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces. It underscores the pressing need for NATO to address potential vulnerabilities and strengthen its collective deterrence posture in the face of evolving threats from Moscow.
