Traders have placed over $1 billion in suspiciously well-timed bets on developments in the US-Israel war with Iran, prompting calls for investigation. Sixteen bets of $100,000 each accurately predicted the timing of US airstrikes on Iran on 27 February. A single user later made over $550,000 betting on the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, traders bet $950 million that oil prices would fall just before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran.
The surge in betting on news events has been facilitated by online platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as commodity derivatives such as oil futures. Experts and lawmakers are concerned that insider information may be giving some traders an unfair advantage. Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University, questioned whether the issue is a lack of legislation or enforcement capabilities, given technological limitations.
An analysis by the New York Times found that on 27 February, about 150 accounts on Polymarket placed $855,000 in bets that the US would strike Iran the next day, with 16 accounts pocketing over $100,000 each. A complaint filed by Public Citizen to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) cited a single anonymous user, “Magamyman”, who made over $553,000 betting on Khamenei’s removal just before his death. The complaint also identified six “suspected insiders” who made $1.2 million on Polymarket after the assassination.
Similar patterns emerged in oil futures markets. On 23 March, traders placed $580 million in bets 15 minutes before Trump announced “productive” talks with Iran, leading to a sell-off and windfall for the traders. On 7 April, $950 million was bet on falling oil prices hours before the ceasefire announcement. Andrew Verstein, a law professor at UCLA, noted that while any single trade could be lucky, the hallmarks of suspicious trades warrant investigation. Craig Holman of Public Citizen expressed scepticism about the CFTC’s willingness to act boldly, given the scale and timing of the bets.
