Satellite images from US-based Planet Labs show significant damage at the Saky airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, with at least eight Russian warplanes apparently destroyed or damaged following explosions on Tuesday. The images reveal large areas of scorched earth and several craters, contradicting Russia's denial that any aircraft were harmed. The runways appear intact, but the parked aircraft, including Su-24M fighter jets, were hit in an area away from hangars.
The cause of the blasts remains unclear, with Ukraine not claiming responsibility. Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov suggested the explosions could be due to careless smoking by Russian soldiers. However, analysts propose several theories: a targeted Ukrainian attack using repurposed missiles, a sabotage operation by Ukrainian special forces, or an accidental fuel leak or ammunition explosion. William Alberque of the IISS believes cluster munitions may have been used, but notes Ukraine lacks the necessary missiles, suggesting possible use of modified S-300 or Neptune missiles.
Louise Jones of McKenzie Intelligence argues the satellite evidence is inconclusive, deeming a precision attack with experimental munitions unlikely. She also considers sabotage improbable but not impossible. Russia has blamed the blasts on safety violations, claiming fire rules were flouted.
The UK's Defence Secretary Ben Wallace stated that two separate explosions suggest an attack rather than an accident, and defended Ukraine's right to target Crimea as legitimate self-defence. Any Ukrainian strike on Crimea would mark an escalation, as Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014, a move widely condemned as illegal. President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that retaking Crimea is essential to ending the war.
