In the past two weeks, a series of Russian incursions into Nato airspace—by drones and fighter jets—has heightened tensions, leaving the alliance grappling with how to respond without triggering a wider conflict. Nato chief Mark Rutte warned on Tuesday that the alliance stands ready to defend every inch of allied territory, but the pattern of violations, whether intentional or not, poses difficult questions.
The incursions began on 10 September when 19 drones flew over Poland, with three or four shot down. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said military conflict was closer than at any time since World War II. Three days later, a drone was detected in Romanian airspace. On Friday, three Russian MiG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace for 12 minutes with transponders off. On Sunday, German jets intercepted a Russian reconnaissance plane over the Baltic Sea. On Monday, Denmark and Norway closed main airports after drone incursions; Denmark's PM said Russian involvement could not be ruled out.
Dr David Jordan of King's College London said Russia appears to be testing Nato's unity, hoping to cause divisions among member states over support for Ukraine. While some officials debate whether drone incursions near Ukraine's border are deliberate or due to reckless risk-taking, The Economist's defence editor Shashank Joshi argues the drones travelled too deep into Poland for accidental incursion to be plausible.
Nato countries have warned Russia that further incursions will meet a military response. Even Donald Trump, speaking at the UN, said he would support Nato countries shooting down Russian aircraft over their territory. The situation remains precarious, with each incident raising the stakes and the risk of unintended escalation.
