A former Royal Navy Commodore has warned that the chance of a nuclear attack on the United Kingdom is not zero, despite the country maintaining a strategic nuclear deterrent.
Commodore Prest said that, with a strategic nuclear deterrent in place, the prospect of a nuclear attack on the UK remains “quite a remote possibility.” However, he stressed this is only true if the country maintains a strong nuclear deterrence, which includes “not only the submarines and the missiles and the warheads, but also the things to protect it.”
Maintaining a Strong Deterrence
He explained that when submarines are at sea, anti-submarine warfare forces need to be maintained to ensure that Russian and other naval forces cannot interfere with the strategic deterrent. “Having that assured second strike capability,” he said, “I think means that a nuclear strike on the UK, and for that matter on NATO, remains a pretty remote possibility.”
He caveated this with a chilling warning: “The chances are not zero.”
Concerns Over Undersea Cables
The warning comes amid concern over the positioning of Russian fishing trawlers over Britain's undersea cables, which carry vital data and communications. Analysis by the Telegraph found that there have been 500 incidents of Russian civilian vessels loitering above them.
In October, the House of Commons Defence Select Committee warned that the High North has become crucial for the UK's defence and security, with the Kremlin increasingly sending spy ships into British waters. MPs said that failing to defend the region could leave underwater cables and pipelines exposed to sabotage during peacetime.
Risk of Conflict with Russia
Commodore Prest said the risk of conflict with Moscow is higher than it has been since the height of the Cold War. He added: “I think, in many ways, certainly, a confrontation with Russia is already taking place. Whether you would define what is occurring in terms of the activities we're seeing — attacks on our national resilience in terms of cyber and the work that GUGI are doing on the undersea cable and so on.”
Dr. Maxim Starchak, an independent expert on Russian nuclear policy and fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy of the Queen's University in Canada, previously told the Express that Britain should “monitor Russian nuclear policy and the triggers that may influence it” and “maintain dialogue in the P5 format.”
He also recommended that the UK accelerate the warhead replacement programme (A21/Mk7) and the construction of Dreadnought-class submarines, as well as the purchase of F-35A fighters to restore the air component of nuclear deterrence. The Prime Minister should oversee the strengthening of coordination with France and create a joint nuclear planning mechanism, and develop air-defence and missile-defence systems, including accelerating the commissioning of E-7 Wedgetail aircraft and Sea Viper Evolution missiles, the specialist added.
