Simulated Russian Attack on NATO Reveals Alarming Scenarios
A detailed wargame conducted by former NATO and German officials has produced a stark warning: Russia could potentially achieve the majority of its military objectives in the Baltic region within a matter of days. The simulation, which envisioned a hypothetical scenario set in October 2026, concluded that Moscow's forces might secure their goals with a surprisingly small initial deployment of only 15,000 troops.
Lithuanian City of Marijampole as the Focal Point
The exercise centered on a Russian incursion into Lithuania, specifically targeting the strategically vital city of Marijampole. In the scenario, the Kremlin employed a fabricated narrative of a humanitarian crisis in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to justify seizing this key conurbation. Marijampole is critically important due to its location at a major road intersection; it lies on the Via Baltica highway connecting the EU and Ukraine to Poland, while also hosting a road that links Belarus and Kaliningrad, which Lithuania is treaty-bound to keep open to Russian traffic.
Bartłomiej Kot, a Polish security analyst who participated as the Polish prime minister in the wargame, highlighted the psychological dynamics at play. He noted that the simulation revealed a tendency among NATO allies to prioritize de-escalation when confronted with Russian escalatory tactics, which could undermine collective defence efforts.
NATO Response: Hesitation and Division
The wargame forecast a fragmented and hesitant response from NATO members. Most alarmingly, the United States was depicted as declining to invoke NATO's Article 5, the collective defence clause that obliges all members to come to the aid of an attacked ally. Germany's response was characterized by significant hesitation, and a pre-deployed brigade in Lithuania did not intervene, even after Russia used drones to lay mines near a military base.
Poland, while mobilising its forces, ultimately refrained from sending troops into Lithuania to assist in its defence. Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst who role-played as the Russian chief of general staff, emphasized that deterrence relies not only on military capabilities but also on the perceived will of the adversary. He stated that the knowledge of Germany's hesitation was sufficient for the simulated Russian side to secure a victory.
Growing European Fears and Russian Posturing
This simulation was conducted against a backdrop of escalating concerns in Europe regarding a potential Russian attack on NATO territory. The past year has witnessed repeated incursions by Russian drones and fighter jets into NATO airspace, actions interpreted by experts and officials as deliberate probes to test the alliance's defensive reactions and expose vulnerabilities.
Netherlands Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans reinforced these concerns, stating assessments indicate Russia could mobilise large troop movements within a year. He pointed to evidence of Russia increasing its strategic inventories and expanding its military presence and assets along NATO's borders.
The wargame exercise was a collaborative effort conducted in December by the German newspaper Die Welt and the German Wargaming Centre of the Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces. It serves as a sobering reminder of the complex challenges and potential divisions within the alliance when faced with a determined and strategically opportunistic adversary.
